Blog: End-of-year markets poll results

As we approach the end of the financial year, I thought it would be a good time to check in on the Australian sharemarket, and talk to some of those working in the industry.

asx

(AAP)

As we approach the end of the financial year, I thought it would be a good time to check in on the Australian sharemarket, and talk to some of those working in the industry.
 
The last time I did such a detailed poll, back in 2009 for Sky News Business, the average result for the S&P/ASX200 was only 6 points off the actual closing level reached by the index at the end of that year.
So, I decided to step it up a notch, and poll 31 economists, analysts and brokers around Australia to get their take on the markets.

When it comes to the S&P/ASX200, the SBS World News Australia End of Year Markets Poll has found the average of all responses, to be at 5042. That's around 8 per cent higher than today.

There is a wide range though, with long-time bull, Clifford Bennett from White Crane Report predicting a close of 5600 by the end of 2013, while Paul Dowling from East & Partners is at the other end, forecasting a 4250 close.

The range is just as wide when we asked for their currency forecasts, stretching from US$1.03 to US$0.83. Most though replied towards the bottom of that range, with the average at US$0.9044.

Unsurprisingly, most tipped at least on interest rate cut this year, with the median of the 31 responses guessing we'll see an official cash rate of 2.5% by December.

You can take a closer look at who said what with the table below, by click on the titles to rearrange the results from bullish to bearish.


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By Ricardo Goncalves
Source: SBS

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Blog: End-of-year markets poll results | SBS News