When Prime Minister Theresa May announced fresh elections for Britain, the outcome appeared all but decided - the lead of the Conservatives over the Labour Party seemed virtually unassailable.
In the meantime, however, the opposition has been gaining ground.
So will it be a close race on June 8? This is difficult to say, because Britain's voting rules make predictions a risky enterprise. Here's why:
Q: How are elections run in Britain?
A: The UK has 650 election districts or "constituencies" and an equal number of seats in the House of Commons. To win the seat, a candidate must get the most votes, even if, in a case of more than two candidates, the number is not a majority. The British call it "winner takes all" or "first past the post."
Q: Is this fair?
A: It's a matter of opinion. On the one hand, each candidate must convince the voters in his or her constituency. On the other, all those many votes for the "loser" count for nothing. In 2015, the Conservatives won only 37 per cent of the total votes, yet gained an absolute majority in parliament. The populist-right UKIP party won nearly 13 per cent of the vote, but just a single seat. The Electoral Reform Society has been battling for years now for proportional representation. But British voters in a 2011 referendum rejected this idea. The Greens submitted a similar reform bill in parliament in 2016 but it was defeated.
Q: Who does this election system benefit?
A: This chiefly favours the major parties. The small parties however can profit if they are strong in a given region. One example is the Scottish National Party SNP. In 2015 it did not run in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, but in Scotland itself it won 56 of the 59 voting districts in 2015. The SNP thereby became the third-strongest faction in parliament - though its overall share of the UK vote was not even 5 per cent.
Q: Can any reliable predictions be drawn from election surveys?
A: Surveys provide more a reading of the electorate's mood than a prediction, because the overall result comes down to what happens in the hotly-contested districts. In 2005, Labour under Tony Blair emerged a narrow three per cent ahead, but was rewarded with a comfortable majority. In 2010 the Tories led by David Cameron won by seven percentage points, yet still fell 20 seats short of an absolute majority. In 2015, virtually all the experts were certain that no party would win a majority - but then the Tories did it.
