The 29-year-old, who failed to win a medal at Beijing 2008 or London 2012, says it will be almost impossible to ride enough World Cup track events to qualify for the Games.
"It's not 100 percent I'm not doing the Olympics but it's difficult," he told the BBC on Thursday. "It probably won't happen, if I'm honest. I've got a road job."
Cavendish, in the last year of a three-year contract with the Belgium-based team, says the sport's governing UCI has made it almost impossible to combine track and road events.
"The (course for the) road race doesn't suit me," he said. "The time trial, well, I'm not a time triallist. And as for the track the UCI has segregated track and road cycling completely.
"So you have to do what Sir Bradley Wiggins is doing and quit road cycling to be able to qualify for it.
"It's killing track cycling because you never get the road stars doing track any more. Track cycling is going to die particularly on the endurance side," added Cavendish.
"As a British athlete I want to do the Olympics but it's hard. I can't do it on the road, can't do it in the time trial and on the track there's just no way to qualify without quitting the road."
(Writing by Ken Ferris; editing by Tony Jimenez)
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