Budget could delay interest rate hike

The budget could lessen the chances of an interest rate hike this year, economists believe, with economic growth forecast to fall.

An interest rate hike has become less likely for later this year as the government's budget measures dampen economic growth.

Some market forecasters were predicting before Tuesday's budget that the Reserve Bank will increase the cash rate later by Christmas.

But in an effort to turn this year's near $50 billion deficit into a surplus next decade, Treasurer Joe Hockey has slashed spending and introduced a debt levy for high income earners.

The Treasury has also forecast economic growth to fall to 2.5 per cent in 2014/15, from 2.75 per cent this year.

Deloitte Access Economics' Chris Richardson said the money that the government is taking out of the economy could be offset by the RBA not increasing the cash rate until next year.

"The government is trying to walk the fine line between repairing the budget on the one hand, without damaging an economy that is fragile on the other," he said.

"So the first rate rise will not be this year, it will be next year sometime."

News headlines about a "horror budget" will impact on consumer confidence, JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters said.

"Cuts into welfare and disability support pensions, tax rises and petrol going up are all probably pretty negative headlines tomorrow and over the next few days," he said.

"So confidence takes a hit initially."

However, company tax cuts and measures to get people back into employment would help business confidence, he said.

"There's some productivity enhancing measures there but I think near term the reaction is going to be negative, and the government has already admitted that."

ANZ economists expect the RBA won't start raising the cash rate until early 2015 because of the budget's moderate drag on economic growth, with more as the year goes on.

"The related potential impact on consumer and business confidence, has the potential to either delay the start of the RBA's tightening cycle and/or make this tightening cycle less aggressive during 2015 than ANZ's current forecasts," ANZ said.

University of NSW head of economics Stephen Keen said the deficit, which is forecast to hit nearly $50 billion next financial year, was quite small.

As a result, the government should not be obsessed with getting a small surplus.

"A small deficit is a sensible thing in a growing economy, and they're going for a small surplus instead which will drive the economy down," he said.


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Source: AAP


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