Budget hopeful on economy's rebalancing

The word "rebalancing" only appears once in the budget papers.





And that's about as much as it deserves, because the rebalancing - the shift away from dependence on the mining investment boom and toward some other drivers of growth, like housing construction or tourism, is proceeding at an agonisingly slow pace.

The forecasts in the budget papers show mining investment is still forecast to slump steeply year after year.

But the further it falls, the less significant it becomes as a proportion of the economy and the smaller its impact on the wider economy's growth rate.

And it is forecast to be increasingly offset by an acceleration in investment by the non-mining business sector.

Largely based on this, growth in gross domestic product, which was only 2.5 per cent in 2013/14 and helped push unemployment higher, is forecast to return to a normal pace of 3.25 per cent in 2016/17.

But in economics there are few things as notoriously difficult to predict as business investment.

The budget papers, compiled by economists who would be painfully aware of this, warn that "the pickup in non-mining business investment may not be as strong as expected".

In other words, the long-fabled rebalancing and the predicted return to normal economic growth may be delayed even further.

With that in mind, the forecast peak in unemployment, 6.5 per cent this time next year compared with 6.2 per cent right now, appears rather hopeful.

When the next budget rolls around, we'll have a better idea of just how hopeful.


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Source: AAP


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