An improvement in the federal budget will take longer than expected, due a combination of government policy and an economy running out of "oomph", an independent forecaster says.
Instead, there could be another deficit in 2016/17 in contrast to the former Labor government's projection of a $4 billion plus surplus.
Deloitte Access Economics economist Chris Richardson says making ironclad political promises about returns to surpluses is a "mug's game".
"Chances are you'll be wrong on the time and even more wrong on the amounts," he said in the advisory firm's latest Budget Monitor.
That's because the fortunes of China now have a larger impact on the economy and tax revenue.
He prefers the coalition's decision to focus more on healthy surpluses in a decade's time rather than any particular year.
Mr Richardson expects a larger 2013/14 budget deficit of $39.7 billion - $9.6 billion worse than forecast under Labor - after accounting for Treasurer Joe Hockey's decision to give the Reserve Bank of Australia $8.8 billion to replenish its reserves.
The 2014/15 budget would be in better shape because of coalition government savings from scrapping the Schoolkids Bonus and carbon tax compensation, and cuts to car industry subsidies and foreign aid.
Economic trends should also improve through rising commodity prices, allowing national income and profits to grow and faster wage gains.
Mr Richardson predicts the 2014/15 deficit to be $18.8 billion - $5.2 billion better than the Treasury forecast.
"But that isn't a stepping stone to happier days, with the factors that generate better news in 2014/15 - policy and the economy - both running out of oomph in 2015/16 and 2016/17," he said.
This means a likely 2015/16 deficit of $7.8 billion, rather than $4.6 billion, and a small deficit of $592 million in 2016/17, rather than a $4.2 billion surplus.
Mr Richardson says the coalition will need the courage to champion unpopular, but much-needed, savings measure coming out of its commission of audit.
And Labor will need to restrain itself from populist responses if the government does try to do the right thing.
"All new governments `take out the garbage' early in their term," he said.
"The commission of audit may yet help undo some of the mistakes of the last government - and some of those of the Howard government as well."
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