Budget needs to lift spirits, wages won't

A positive response to Treasurer Joe Hockey's second budget would be timely as wages growth slides to an 18-year low.

Australian Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey

A positive response to Joe Hockey's budget would be timely as wages growth slides to an 18-year low. (AAP)

It's been described as a "softer and cuddlier" budget by one bank.

Treasurer Joe Hockey will be hoping voters also see his second budget that way because new figures show the wage increases they are earning certainly won't be lifting their spirits.

The latest wage price index - a measure preferred by the Reserve Bank - shows annual growth sliding to its lowest level in at least 18 years at 2.3 per cent.

Commonwealth Securities economist Savanth Sebastian said if wage growth is barely covering inflation it will restrain consumer spending and confidence.

"The key will be how consumers and businesses respond to the federal budget," Mr Sebastian said.

The data coincided with the treasurer starting out on his post-budget sell.

The two key components of Tuesday's budget are families and a small business package aimed at lifting both jobs and growth.

Yet his forecasts suggest growth will remain below its long-term trend of 3.25 per cent for at least another year and that unemployment will hit 6.5 per cent by June 2016 compared with its recent reading of 6.2 per cent.

But Mr Hockey believes the economy is on a stronger growth trajectory, and is encouraged by rising job advertisements, good retail spending growth and "excellent" housing construction.

He told the National Press Club in Canberra he hopes the jobless rate won't reach this projected peak.

"It may well not reach 6.5, I'm being conservative on all my forecasts," he said.

Economists at ANZ Bank described the budget as "fairly benign" and doubted that it would have a big impact on the economy.

"If the first principle of economic policy is do no harm, then this budget has hit the mark," they said in a note to clients.

The budget still projects a surplus in 2019/20, even though there has been a further marked deterioration in deficits over the four-year forward estimates.

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said the government's figures show the deficit for 2015/16 has doubled in the past 12 months to $35.1 billion.

"Joe Hockey will never deliver a budget surplus, and nor will Scott Morrison if he succeeds him," Mr Bowen told ABC Radio, a jibe that was frequently hurled at former Labor treasurer Wayne Swan.

And he never did.


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Source: AAP


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