Joe Hockey's plan to get the budget back to surplus in four years' time is based on hope, luck and higher taxes.
That's the view of Grattan Institute head John Daley, who believes the treasurer's budget forecasts for economic growth, wages and the terms of trade are far too optimistic.
While the coalition government repeatedly boasts about being a low taxing party, the institute also argues it is raising additional revenue through its temporary budget repair levy and re-indexing fuel excise.
But most of all, revenue is being boosted by bracket creep, which is pushing more average wage earners into higher tax brackets in the absence of personal income tax cuts.
"The government's plan is primarily to repair its budget by increasing taxes," Mr Daley told AAP upon releasing the first in a series of working papers on Wednesday.
At the same time, annual wage growth is already lagging behind government projections.
In addition, while the terms of trade - or national income though trade - is forecast to flatten out after falling another nine per cent, this still leaves it 50 per cent higher than its long term average.
"Every other terms of trade boom in Australian history ... has been symmetrical. What goes up tends to come down," Mr Daley said.
Furthermore, the methodology used by Treasury for forecasting economic growth always assumes GDP returns to at least trend in years three and four of the budget, irrespective of what is currently occurring in the economy.
Mr Daley said Treasury has been plugging in their old numbers for economic growth since "Adam was a boy" when nobody has seen those kind of trend rates since the 1990s.
"After 15 years of this you do have to start wondering whether the trend might be a little lower," he said.
He says if all these numbers are "rubbery", the assumption about returning to near balance in years three and four of the budget is "even more rubbery".
He said the government is going to need a great deal more luck with its forecasts than in the past six years but "Hoping for the best is not a budget management strategy.
Over the next two months the institute will release four working papers that propose reducing superannuation tax concessions, changing capital gains tax and negative gearing, broadening the GST, and introducing a broad-based property levy.
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