Budget slow to lift business outlook

A series of tax breaks in the May budget have been slow to lift confidence among businesses when its comes to the economic outlook.

The May federal budget was billed as pro-business but nearly three months on, few firms are punching the air and most still view the economic outlook in a negative light.

A new survey covering the three months to June found business owner predictions for the next 12 months cooling for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott, however, remains one of the economic optimists.

Speaking in South Australia on Monday, Mr Abbott conceded the business cycle cannot be banished or international circumstances changed.

"But we can banish pessimism and defeatism," he told reporters.

The survey of business expectations by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) has reported reduced circumstances for sales revenue, selling prices, profits, employment and investment - at a time of rising wages and increasing labour costs.

Export sales bucked the trend, increasing for the second consecutive quarter, which suggests exporters are beginning to benefit from the falling Australian dollar.

ACCI chief Kate Carnell said the budget was a good one for business, including as it did a series of tax breaks for small firms, but measures are taking time to filter through.

"The ... survey demonstrates that confidence remains fragile and the economy is facing significant headwinds," she warned.

Little wonder that job advertisements, as calculated by the ANZ Bank, eased 0.4 per cent in July.

"The slower growth in job advertising supports our view that employment growth will slow in the second half of 2015, following unexpectedly strong outcomes since late 2014," ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said.

Official labour force figures are due for release on Thursday and economists expect to see a modest 10,000 increase in the number of people employed, possibly ticking up the jobless rate to 6.1 per cent from 6.0 per cent.

The data will be too late for the Reserve Bank's monthly board meeting on Tuesday, which economists widely expect will leave the cash rate at a record low of two per cent, reflecting a low inflation environment.

Last month's consumer price index showed annual inflation for the year to June at 1.5 per cent, well below the RBA's two to three per cent target band.

More up-to-date figures from TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute released on Monday show inflation grew 0.2 per cent in July for an annual 1.6 per cent rate.

"Cautious optimism from the RBA governor in recent weeks speaks to us that the board is likely to leave the cash rate at two per cent for quite some time," TD Securities chief strategist for Asia-Pacific Annette Beacher says.


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Source: AAP


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