Budget won't show any upcoming surplus

The coalition may see itself as the party of budget surpluses, but that won't be evident in the four-year estimates in Tuesday's budget.

Treasurer Joe Hockey's budget will be a sea of red stretching out as far as the eye can see when he hands down his second offering on Tuesday.

Economists expect the budget has suffered a massive deterioration since December's mid-year review, taking a big revenue hit through a steep drop in ore prices and weak wages growth, and adding billions to already bloated deficits.

Economic growth remains sluggish, keeping the jobless rate above six per cent and forcing the Reserve Bank to slash its cash rate to an all-time low of just two per cent.

Economists expect the deficit for 2014/15 will be closer to $45 billion than the $40.4 billion forecast just five months ago and predict something of a similar size for 2015/16 instead of $31.2 billion previously estimated.

Mr Hockey repeatedly has said he won't be trying to reclaim lost revenues through higher taxes.

Instead the government will embark on an agenda aimed at "jobs and growth".

"It is vitally important that we have the right budget for these times and we will," Mr Hockey said this week.

The treasurer has some lost ground to make up after his ill-received first budget, of which $30 billion worth of measures remain stuck in the Senate.

But both Mr Hockey and Prime Minister Tony Abbott insist there will still be a credible path back to a surplus, although neither is prepared to detail a timeframe.

"I think the Australian people got pretty sick of having the Labor Party announce with great fanfares a date for a return to surplus which was never actually fulfilled," Mr Abbott says.

A recent Essential Research poll found that less than a third of voters actually regard achieving a budget surplus as very important, despite the agony politicians put themselves through trying to achieve one.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says Labor will gauge the budget on three criteria: Is it the right plan for the future? Is it honest and responsible? Is it fair?

Voters will probably gauge it by any hit they take in the hip pocket, and more importantly, whether their job is secure or whether they can access work.

The centrepiece for the budget will be two packages for family and small business, aimed at both encouraging people into work while getting firms to take staff on.

The starting point to gauge the success of those measures will be the performance of the jobless rate.

It stood at 6.2 per cent in April, just shy of a recent 12-year high of 6.3 per cent.


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Source: AAP


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