Budget's gloomy growth outlook

The slogan adopted by the government for Treasurer Scott Morrison's budget on Tuesday was "jobs and growth".

Little joy for jobs in budget

The government's slogan is "jobs and growth", but the budget promises little joy on either front. (AAP)





But the budget promises little joy on either front and, as a result, offers wage-earners little hope of significant pay rises.

No wonder the Reserve Bank's board felt compelled to cut the cash rate to a new record low of 1.75 per cent as Mr Morrison rehearsed his budget speech.

The budget forecasts show gross domestic product rising by 2.5 per cent 2016/17, the same as 2015/16, before picking up a touch to three per cent for 2017/18.

The average for the preceding five years was 2.6 per cent.

In other words, the budget papers foreshadow the same tepid growth we have become used to since the global crisis.

And that's weighed on the jobs outlook.

The number employed grew by 235,000, or two per cent, over the year to March, cutting the jobless rate by a half per cent to 5.7 per cent.

But the budget has lowered the bar for jobs growth to just 1.75 per cent for both 2016/17 and 2017/18.

As a result, unemployment is tipped to be 5.5 per cent by June 2017 and to be stuck there a year later.

So job creation will hold the line on unemployment but make no real inroads into it.

And that will keep wage-earners on the defensive.

That's clear in the outlook for wages growth.

Average wage rates are forecast to rise only 2.5 per cent in 2016/17 and then to 2.75 per cent in 2017/18, beating the cost of living by a meagre half a percentage point in each of those two years.


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Source: AAP


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