Business economists are more pessimistic about their firms' future sales and profits than they were last northern autumn, and more predict slower economic growth.
At the same time, a majority of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said their firms plan to raise wages in the January-March quarter. That is the largest proportion that expects to raise pay since mid-2014.
Aside from the planned pay rise, the survey paints a mostly gloomy view of the US economy at the start of 2016. Fewer than half the economists expect sales at their firms to rise in the first quarter, the smallest proportion since January 2015. And nearly 20 per cent expect profits to fall, the most in more than a year.
For the first time in three years, more than 25 per cent of the economists forecast that growth will slip below 2.00 per cent over the next year. As recently as April, 30 per cent expected growth would top 3.0 per cent in the following 12 months. That figure fell to just 4.0 per cent in the current survey.
The survey was conducted from December 17 to January 5, mostly before the big stock market drops that have occurred since 2016 began, and 148 economists responded.
There were some positive signs in the results. In addition to the planned wage increases for the first quarter, nearly half of the economists said their firms had already raised pay in the final three months of 2015. That's the highest percentage in more than a decade.
And one-third of respondents said their firms planned to add jobs in the next three months, up from 29 per cent in the autumn. The number planning to cut jobs also rose, to 15 per cent.
A solid majority, 62 per cent, of the economists say that the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase announced on December 1 would have no impact on their company.
Just 16 per cent expect a negative effect and almost a quarter expect a positive one.
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