Business indicators a mixed bag for GDP

Mixed first quarter business indicators data hasn't changed sentiment for Wednesday's growth figures.

A mixed business indicators report won't shake the boat for Wednesday's first quarter economic growth figures.

Company profits began 2016 on a soft note and wages stayed low, while sales surged in the March quarter, UBS economists said.

"Today's first quarter GDP (gross domestic product) building blocks were mixed, but overall on the positive side," they said.

"An increase in inventories will add to growth; and while profits dropped further, there was a modest gain in wages, as well as a notable spike in sales."

UBS is sticking to its forecast for real GDP of 0.7 per cent for the March quarter and 2.7 per cent year-on-year, down slightly from three per cent at the end of 2015.

But UBS says there is now a chance that could drift higher.

"We await the final partial data, due tomorrow, which is expected to show a big boost from net exports, as well as a modest rise in public demand," they said.

Company gross operating profits were much weaker than expected in the March quarter, dropping 4.7 per cent.

They were down 8.4 per cent in the 12 months to March, the worst result since mining collapsed in 2012.

Most of the weakness was in the export-facing sector of mining, which has now contracted for the past eight quarters, and in manufacturing.

Mining profits slumped 9.6 per cent, a decline well in excess of the fall in commodity prices, Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan said.

Mr Hanlan said Wednesday's growth estimate is unlikely to be as weak as the headline profits figure but, nonetheless, will be softer than anticipated.

Westpac expects GDP to have risen to 0.6 per cent in the March quarter, taking it to 2.7 per cent for the 12 months to March.

"Profit weakness suggests that the risks to this number are skewed to the downside," Mr Hanlan said.

Economy-wide sales rose by 1.5 per cent in the March quarter - the biggest increase in six years, CommSec chief economist Craig James said.

Estimated business inventories, in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, rose 0.4 per cent in the first quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.


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