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Businesses upbeat prior to market rout

Australia's economic environment outlook remains positive, but global uncertainties continue to pose the greatest risk to businesses.

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Source: AAP


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Global market turmoil remains a risk to the Australian economy despite signs of growth at the end of 2015.

The recovery of non-mining sectors remained resilient in the December quarter, and the domestic outlook remains upbeat, National Australia Bank's latest quarterly business survey shows.

"Despite the issues facing the mining sector, Australia continues to enjoy a relatively healthy, vibrant and adaptive economy," NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.

However, the poll was conducted before the recent rout on financial and commodity markets rattled sentiment and raised concerns over the global economic outlook.

"The longer these market volatilities persist, the more likely we will see an impact," Mr Oster said.

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The survey said business conditions eased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2015, but remained near their post global financial crisis high.

The improved conditions were consistent with a pick up in non-mining sector investment, including a modest lift in capital expenditure plans, and "exceptionally strong" employment growth.

Forward orders remained at elevated levels in the fourth quarter, as did expectations for conditions both three and 12 months ahead.

NAB also noted that business confidence had rebounded from the September quarter's fall.

The results of the survey suggested conditions were ripe for economic growth at the end of 2015.

"Based on robust business conditions in December, our model implies steady GDP growth for Q4," NAB said.

HOW BUSINESSES SAW THE ECONOMY IN LATE 2015:

- Conditions had eased slightly but remained elevated

- Confidence had rebounded, but that was prior to global turbulence in the new year

- Forward orders eased, but remained reasonably positive

- Was still relatively easy for firms to find labour

- Conditions were ripe for steady economic growth

(Source: National Australia Bank)


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