Cambodia faces a potential political stalemate unless strongman premier Hun Sen can strike a compromise with a resurgent opposition after hotly disputed elections.
Allegations of election fraud have flared since the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) claimed it won polls last weekend, but its slender margin of victory has weakened prime minister Hun Sen's hand.
The CPP on Sunday said it had secured an estimated 68 of the 123 lower house seats available, a 22-seat deficit from the last election but enough to edge aside the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) which won 55.
If confirmed, it would be the ruling party's worst election result since 1998.
The opposition has rejected the result, alleging massive rigging of the electoral roll to cheat them out off a landmark win, and threatened nationwide protest if the vote stands.
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Its leader Sam Rainsy has called for a United Nations-backed probe into alleged election fraud, raising the prospect of political paralysis.
On Wednesday he told AFP his party has won a majority 63 seats and repeated a vow to prevent the CPP "stealing victory".
The row challenges the hitherto immutable Hun Sen to make concessions to the opposition and Rainsy, a French-educated former banker who returned to Cambodia in July from self-imposed exile after receiving a surprise royal pardon for criminal convictions which he contends were politically motivated.
"Hun Sen and the CPP will need to completely re-invent themselves to have any hope of recapturing their past commanding majority," said Carl Thayer, Professor at the University of NSW.
But the omens are not good, he warned, adding "Hun Sen has not shown signs of being a born-again politician".
Official election results are due to be released in mid-August, with parliament ordered to sit by late September.
