Cash rate expected to stay on hold

Economists expect the RBA will leave the cash rate on hold at 2.5 per cent when it holds its first meeting for 2014.

The cash rate is expected to stay on hold as the Reserve Bank gauges the effects of previous cuts and the falling Australian dollar.

The RBA is likely to keep the cash rate at 2.5 per cent when it meets for the first time in 2014 on February 4, according to an AAP survey of 13 economists.

Unexpectedly-high inflation in the December quarter took the chance of a rate cut off the table for the near future, JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters said.

"It's very difficult for an inflation-targeting central bank, even if they wanted to cut rates in the medium term, to think about doing it after a high inflation result," he said.

But high unemployment would compel the RBA to cut the cash rate later in 2014, Mr Walters said.

JP Morgan expects unemployment to rise to 6.5 per cent by mid-year.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said the RBA was at the end of its rate cutting cycle, and he expects a rate hike later in the year.

"Interest rates have already been cut to record lows and evidence continues to build that rate cuts are getting traction," Dr Oliver said.

"Our assessment remains that the RBA would prefer to wait for the full impact of past rate cuts to flow through and is now more focused on achieving and maintaining a lower level for the Australian dollar."


2 min read

Published

Updated

Source: AAP


Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News daily and direct to your Inbox

Sign up now for the latest news from Australia and around the world direct to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Follow SBS News

Download our apps

Listen to our podcasts

Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service

Watch now

Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world