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Cash rate to stay low amid global woes

The ANU's "RBA shadow board" sees no reason for the real board to change the cash rate when it meets on Tuesday.

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Source: AAP


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Academics expect the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate at a record low this week, faced with a weakening global economy and uncertain financial markets.

The central bank will hold its monthly board meeting on Tuesday after a week that saw the Australian share market hit by persistent concerns over China's economic outlook.

"A weakening outlook for the global economy and jittery financial markets do not portend well for the Australian economy," Australian National University's Timo Henckel said on Monday.

As such, he does not expect the share market to rebound significantly.

Dr Henckel chairs the ANU's so-called "RBA shadow board" made up of academics, economists and former RBA board members.

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The group tries to gauge what decision RBA governor Glenn Stevens and his team might make on interest rates every month.

The cash rate has sat at two per cent since May.

Last week in its annual assessment of Australia, the International Monetary Fund agreed that the cash rate is appropriately set, but warned it may need to be cut further if the economic rebound proves disappointing.

Weekly consumer confidence figures are also due on Tuesday.

Last week the ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence gauge tumbled 3.4 per cent, paring the near nine per cent jump of the previous week that was in response to Malcolm Turnbull becoming prime minister.

Commonwealth Securities economist Savanth Sebastian expects the performance of the new administration will be key to the future direction of confidence.


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