Australia is likely to avoid a drought-inducing El Nino following a cooling of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures since Christmas.
The Bureau of Meteorology says there is about a 25 per cent chance an El Nino will develop by the end of February, which is down from its pre-Christmas estimate of 70 per cent.
BOM has also reduced its fortnightly El Nino Southern Oscillation Tracker from "alert" to "neutral", skipping the "watch" level.
Climate prediction service manager Dr Andrew Watkins said before Christmas that sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean were at El Nino thresholds - about 1.1C above normal.
Now they are about 0.5C above normal.
"We came extremely close to having an El Nino in late October to early December," Dr Watkins told AAP.
"We had a number of factors that were at or above El Nino thresholds but the ocean and the atmosphere weren't classically matched up.
"In the end, the conditions didn't persist for long enough. The reality is that it didn't lock in and things started backing off around Christmas time."
Warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific - rarely observed and not usually associated with an El Nino - made predicting one very tough this season, Dr Watkins said.
He said it was unlikely an El Nino would develop before the annual cycle that drove the phenomenon ended in autumn.
However, much of eastern and southern Australia is still suffering from a lack of rain.
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