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Chances of May rate cut strengthen

The RBA says it wants to examine more economic data before deciding on another interest rate cut, and experts believe the move will come in May.

The Reserve Bank has been criticised by economists for holding fire on a rate cut as the economy shows little sign of improvement.

The RBA has made it clear another cut is on the way, but minutes of its April 7 board meeting show it wants to see updated economic data, including Wednesday's inflation figures, before deciding to make a move.

The bank also wants to assess the impact of the last cash rate cut, February's quarter of a percentage point reduction to 2.25 per cent, the minutes show.

March quarter inflation figures are expected to show falling petrol prices dragged the annual rate back to 1.3 per cent, well below the RBA's two to three per cent target band.

Citi economists Josh Williamson and Paul Brennan said the RBA's decision to keep the cash rate on hold at a record low 2.25 per cent in April was "unsatisfactory".

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"The comment on allowing more time for the economy to respond to the reduction in the cash rate earlier in the year was remarkable," they said.

"On inflation, the RBA has consistently been relaxed about inflation remaining within the target."

The cautious approach on rates may dilute the impact of the next rate cut, the economists added.

"So it ends up being forced to lower rates anyway and possibly by more than if it had acted more decisively," they said.

Financial markets' expectations for a May 5 interest rate cut have shot up to 73 per cent, from 57 per cent on Monday, due to the contents of the minutes and comments from RBA governor Glenn Stevens in New York overnight that the central bank was inclined to cut the cash rate again.

JP Morgan Australia chief economist Stephen Walters expects the cash rate to be lowered in May, although it looms as another close call.

The April minutes don't take into account encouraging recent economic data, including a surprise drop in the unemployment rate to 6.1 per cent in March, he said.

"Two weeks ago, the question of whether policy was gaining traction was unanswered, but last week's data points towards the affirmative," he said.

The RBA minutes also show it is concerned about the impact low interest rates are having on house prices, especially in Sydney.

But in a similar message delivered by Mr Stevens to a New York business lunch, the minutes also highlight that property markets in other cities are very different to Sydney.

The governor also called for more assistance in lifting economic growth from the federal government.

"Any help in boosting sustainable growth from other policies would, of course, be welcome," he said, just weeks before Treasurer Joe Hockey delivers his second budget.


3 min read

Published

Updated

Source: AAP


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