The US v Nicolás Maduro: Is the Venezuelan leader facing life in jail?

Nicolás Maduro could rely on a number of legal defences to avoid potential life imprisonment. But that path faces several hurdles.

A graphic of US president Donald Trump looking stern above an image of the Venezuelan president in custody

Nicolás Maduro pleaded not guilty to drug trafficking and other charges in his first appearance at a New York court. Source: AAP / Graphic art by Leon Wang

Key Points
  • Nicolás Maduro has pleaded not guilty to a range of criminal drug charges in New York.
  • The US government's evidence against him has yet to be unveiled.
  • The deposed Venezuelan president is being represented by Julian Assange's former lawyer.
It was the moment that the United States Justice Department had been seeking for years: Nicolás Maduro facing drug trafficking charges, finally — on US soil.

Hands bound and flanked by heavily-armed police, the captured Venezuelan leader was transported from a Brooklyn jail to a New York courthouse to face American justice on Tuesday morning AEDT, following his capture by US forces some 48 hours earlier.

Maduro, 63, pleaded not guilty in court to four charges — a decision meaning prosecutors will have to reveal the evidence they have against him.

So what is the deposed president facing, and how strong is the legal case against him?
A man and a woman in handcuffs are being escorted by armed officers.
Captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, face a range of charges related to drug trafficking. Source: EPA / Stringer

What charges does Maduro face?

Maduro is charged with four US criminal counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices.

The charges variously carry minimum sentences of 10 to 20 years under US law. If convicted, Maduro could face a maximum sentence of life imprisonment on the narco-terrorism charge alone.

The same charges were included in a 2020 indictment against Maduro by the justice department during the first Trump administration.

The updated indictment, made public on the weekend, contains new details and includes Maduro's wife, Cilia Flores.

The indictment alleges Maduro used his "illegally obtained authority" to "transport thousands of tons of cocaine to the United States" and that he "has tarnished every public office he has held".

He is accused of having "provided law enforcement cover and logistical support" to major drug trafficking groups, such as the Sinaloa Cartel and Venezuela's Tren de Aragua gang.

Flores is accused of ordering kidnappings and murders, as well as accepting bribes in 2007 to arrange a meeting between drug traffickers and the director of Venezuela's National Anti-Drug Office, Néstor Reverol.

How strong is the case against Maduro?

It will depend on the evidence, which has not been laid out in the charging documents.

It will also depend on the strength of evidence provided by witnesses against Maduro.

The prosecution could call, as witnesses, former senior Venezuelan officials currently in US jails — Hugo Carvajal Barrios, a former Venezuelan military intelligence chief, who admitted to narco-terrorism charges in 2025. Another could be Cliver Alcalá Cordones, a former Venezuelan general who was sentenced to 260 months in prison for providing material support to the US-designated Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in 2024.
A courtroom sketch of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores.
Nicolás Maduro pleaded not guilty to a four-count indictment accusing him of leading a conspiracy to funnel cocaine into the United States, including by working with armed guerrilla groups, drug cartels and international gangs. Source: AAP / AP / Elizabeth Williams
Markus Wagner, an expert on US constitution law at the University of Wollongong, said the evidence in those cases could be used in the Maduro trial.

"All of that will be tested in a regular court," he told SBS News.

"It's not like a military proceeding, à la Guantanamo, but it's a regular proceeding in ordinary courts that the US government has to sort of convince."

Harry Melkonian from the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, who specialises in the US constitution, said it will depend on first-hand, reliable witnesses who can be brought against Maduro, but added that the details in the indictment were "sufficiently vague".

He said it's unclear what evidence US prosecutors have against Maduro, on how they allege the Venezuelan leader facilitated both the transportation of drugs and the growth of narco-terrorist groups.
"There're crimes going on in the United States. That doesn't mean that Donald Trump is facilitating it," Melkonian told SBS News.

The indictment contained state department data, estimating 200 tonnes of cocaine was allegedly trafficked through Venezuela annually.

"You could read this quite honestly and come to the conclusion of saying, 'Boy, this guy was [a] really lousy president. He couldn't control this stuff'," Melkonian said.

"But that's not a crime. They've alleged that he facilitated it, that he was involved in it, and that's a whole different story."
Melkonian said prosecutors could have a tough time proving their case.

"I think they're going to have a heck of a time getting admissible evidence against him, and ... they could end up very sorry that they brought him back to New York for trial, because it could turn into a humiliation for the government," he said.

How will Maduro defend himself?

Maduro is being represented by Barry Pollack — the Washington lawyer who represented WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

In court on Tuesday, Pollack said he anticipated extensive legal wrangling over what he termed Maduro's "military abduction", signalling the defence will argue the US operation was unlawful.

It's also likely that Maduro will seek to dismiss the case on the grounds that he is immune, or shielded, from criminal prosecution as a foreign head of state.

But that's complicated by a historic precedent: a US court's rejecting an immunity argument from then-Panama leader Manuel Noriega, who, like Maduro, was accused of conspiring to smuggle drugs into the US and was captured in a US military raid in 1990.
The US government successfully argued Noriega was not Panama's legitimate leader — an argument likely to be resurrected against Maduro.

"They're going to be looking at that Noriega case very, very carefully," Melkonian said.

"There's a real danger in bringing somebody like Maduro to trial, because it's one thing to make it the news headlines, to get the grand jury indictment, but it would be pretty significant if the case is lost at trial or if a judge throws it out."

Maduro could also argue on procedural grounds, including the legality of the manner in which he was brought before the court: his capture by US forces.
Wagner said this is complicated by the "Ker-Frisbie doctrine" — which has essentially allowed US courts to prosecute criminal defendants regardless of how they were brought into the country.

"It gives sort of carte blanche to US governments to abduct someone, and as long as they can capture that person, courts will not stand in the way."

What happens next?

Maduro is next due in court on 17 March. But it could be several months or even more than a year before he stands trial.

Prosecutors could eventually offer a plea deal to avoid a trial.

"I don't see this case getting off the ground for a year or so until we sort of see actual evidence," Wagner said.

— With additional reporting by Reuters


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6 min read

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By Rashida Yosufzai

Source: SBS News



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