China data and dairy price may lift kiwi

Strong Chinese industrial production and retail figures, and a lift in Fonterra's forecast payout to farmers, may push up the kiwi dollar.

The New Zealand dollar may gain on new Chinese economic data and expectations Fonterra will announce a hike in its forecast payout to dairy farmers.

The kiwi traded at 82.90 US cents at 5pm in Wellington from 82.70 cents at 8am and 82.91 cents on Monday. The trade-weighted index was 77.78 from 77.83 on Monday.

Traders are awaiting Chinese industrial production and retail figures to show more signs the world's second biggest economy is climbing out of a rut earlier this year, adding to optimism after a better-than-expected trade surplus was reported on the weekend.

A strong print could support risk-sensitive assets such as the kiwi, and New Zealand's currency is likely to get a boost on Wednesday if Fonterra lifts its forecast payout to farmers after continued strength in global dairy prices.

If Fonterra raises its payout, "it wouldn't be a surprise - there's a 20 to 40 cent range for a lift in the price" forecast by analysts, said Chris Tennent-Brown, FX economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

Strong Chinese data and a Fonterra hike "could help the kiwi."

The kiwi rose to 91.04 Australian cents from 90.81 cents on Monday and to 85.63 yen from 85.32 yen, but declined to 60.26 euro cents from 60.50 cents.


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Source: AAP


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