China, US concerns to weigh on Aust market

Concerns about China and talk about when the US will lift rates are likely to send the local share market lower as the Aussie dollar keeps falling.

A screen displays stock market

(AAP Image/Joel Carrett) Source: AAP

The Australian share market is set to slide on the back of volatility in China and uncertainty about US interest rates.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver is tipping the local market to open 25-30 points, or about 0.6 per cent, lower on Monday, following falls on Wall Street and in Europe last week.

Dr Oliver says patchy US job figures on Friday fuelled further speculation about whether the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates later this month.

He doesn't expect any "motherhood statements" from this weekend's G20 meetings in Turkey to arrest trader anxiety about the strength of Chinese economic growth either.

"The bottom line is these concern about China and the Fed are lingering - that's what's causing this volatility in the local market," Dr Oliver told AAP.

"Both these issues are being kept alive. There's no resolution."

While US markets will be closed on Monday because of the Labor Day long weekend, the patchy Chinese market is set to open.

Local investors will also be keeping an eye on trade and inflation figures coming out of China on Tuesday and Thursday respectively.

Dr Oliver is tipping Australian unemployment figures on Thursday to be flat, consistent with GDP growth, and local business and consumer confidence surveys to reflect market concerns about China and US rates.

At the close on Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 12.8 points, or 0.25 per cent, higher at 5,040.6, while the broader All Ordinaries index was up 12.1 points, or 0.24 per cent, at 5,060.8.

Dr Oliver expects the Australian dollar, which was trading at 69.05 US cents overnight, down from 69.83 cents on Friday, will continue to gradually tumble towards the 60 cent mark - and possibly lower.

That's bad news for online buyers and holidaymakers, but manufacturers, farmers, miners and higher education provides would be stoked, he said.

"The dollar never goes in a straight line, so it's hard to see it falling a lot further in the space of a week," he said.

"I wouldn't bet against it though."


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Source: AAP


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