Christmas cheer by-passing Australia

Business and consumer confidence has slipped into the doldrums, despite growing talk of a cut in interest rates.

Treasurer Joe Hockey insists the mood of the cabinet is good despite a difficult year for the government.

For the rest of us, a sense of gloom has descended, even with talk of interest rate cuts next year.

The National Australia Bank has joined a growing number of economists expecting the Reserve Bank to cut the cash rate in 2015 from its already all-time low of 2.5 per cent.

But ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan questions whether further rate cuts will help build confidence or generate more concern and uncertainty about the future of the economy.

His own figures released on Tuesday would suggest the latter.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence gauge dropped 3.1 per cent in the past week to its lowest level in four months.

The key driver was confidence in the economic outlook, which ANZ says likely reflects weak GDP data and media focus on the government's economic management.

Mr Hockey concedes it has been difficult for some Australians.

"But I am confident it will be a good Christmas. I am getting good feedback from retailers," he said on Tuesday.

At the same time, NAB's latest business survey found confidence fell further in November, continuing a trend since mid-year to stand at its lowest level since a pre-election jump in 2013.

Business conditions all but wiped out a large part of the sharp rise in October.

"The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high which is keeping consumer confidence subdued, while previously lofty business confidence has been steadily eroding," NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen says it's time Mr Hockey accepted his "chaotic" management and unfair budget was affecting the economy.

"It's actually affecting confidence and economic growth," he told reporters in Sydney.

NAB now expects the RBA to cut the cash rate in March and August next year, having held steady since August, 2013.

The bank also expects the jobless rate to peak at 6.75 per cent rather than 6.5 per cent, compared with 6.2 per cent as of October.

November labour force figures are released on Thursday.

But in some good news for job seekers, a separate survey by recruitment specialists Hudson found hiring intentions for the first three months of 2015 were the largest quarterly increase in five years.


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