Climate wars far from over for Abbott

The carbon tax is as good as dead but the Abbott government is far from out of the woods in terms of climate politics.

The scrapping of the carbon tax closes a bitter chapter in Australian politics and offers lessons for the Abbott government in the perils of negotiating climate policy.

John Howard first pledged an emissions trading scheme (ETS) ahead of the 2007 election, but it was a triumphant Kevin Rudd who took the first shot at cobbling together parliamentary support for his own cap-and-trade policy.

He achieved bipartisan backing for his scheme two years later, only to see it come crashing down when Malcolm Turnbull was toppled as Liberal leader by Tony Abbott.

The first of many climate wars ensued, and Rudd's dream was shattered in parliament as pernickety Greens senators stood their ground against his ETS.

His decision to shelve the plan for three years was the beginning of the Labor leader's end, albeit temporarily as it would turn out.

Rudd's popularity plummeted, prompting Julia Gillard to make her move on his prime ministership.

Her experience with climate politics was no less poisonous and far more personal.

Gillard famously promised voters there would never be a "carbon tax" under a government she led - before announcing a fixed-price on carbon pollution after the 2010 election.

The "broken promise" dogged Gillard for years.

Abbott argued the tax was bad policy, jacking up the cost of living for households and slugging the economy while doing nothing for the environment.

But it was the perceived betrayal of voters that damaged Gillard more than the policy itself.

Entering an agreement with the Greens and pro-climate change independent MPs to safeguard her minority government only added to the howls of outrage.

Abbott's "axe the tax" slogan ate away at the Gillard government, helping pave the way for a Rudd comeback.

The second time around, Rudd recognised the carbon tax was political poison and sought to distance himself from it weeks out from an election in September last year.

But it was Abbott who won the day, promising nothing less than dismantling the entire Labor package of climate action measures and everything associated with it.

For close to a year his government has been frustrated by an uncompromising Senate dominated by Labor and the Greens.

But Abbott's fortunes changed suddenly one bizarre night in June.

Clive Palmer - standing alongside Al Gore, the former US vice president and climate crusader - announced his three senators would deliver the government the crucial votes it needed it the new Senate.

Now the carbon tax is gone, but the Abbott government has paid a high price.

Palmer threatens to scuttle every other aspect of the government's climate agenda - and he's got help.

Ricky Muir - who backed the repeal of the carbon tax - has rustled up Palmer United Party's support to save the Australian Renewable Energy Agency from abolition.

The government wants to make $1.3 billion in savings by scrapping the agency, but that's now in doubt.

Palmer wants to save two other Labor climate agencies slated for abolition and leave the renewable energy target untouched for two years, frustrating even further the government's plans.

And it's almost impossible to see how Abbott can entertain Palmer's central demand.

The maverick MP won't support Abbott's alternative climate plan unless the prime minister agrees to establish a "dormant" ETS in case Australia's trading partners take similar action in the future.

That's a tough sell for Abbott, who ridiculed an ETS as the "non-delivery of an invisible substance to no-one" and a carbon tax by another name.

The government has already had a taste of the pandemonium Palmer can whip up in a moment's notice if he isn't getting his way.

Their first attempt to push the repeal through the new Senate last week spectacularly backfired when Palmer pulled his support at the eleventh hour, accusing the government of double crossing him.

The government's frantic attempts to woo Palmer back only put off two other key crossbench senators, who plunged the negotiations into further disarray.

The repeal eventually went through but the whole shemozzle hardly left anyone believing the adults were in charge.

The government should anticipate further curveballs from Palmer as it tries to salvage what's left of its climate agenda.

Australia meanwhile is adrift without any policy in place for addressing climate change.

Abbott has won this battle, but he's far from won the war.


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