A committee charged with reviewing Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution is submitting its recommended changes during the next session of parliament, which begins on September 11.
Of particular interest to Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, (NLD) is a military drafted clause that bars her from standing for presidency ahead of the 2015 national elections, because her late husband and children are foreigners.
The main disagreement within the Joint Committee to Review the Constitution is whether to propose changing section 436, which gives the military a veto over constitutional change.
Committee members have told The Myanmar Times only three military representatives were opposed to reducing the threshold for constitutional change from 75 per cent to a two-thirds majority.
“That is the normal majority that you would expect in most democracies around the world,” said Trevor Wilson, a visiting fellow at ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, who served as Australia’s ambassador to Myanmar from 2000 to 2003.
“So that would bring their constitution more in line with other, so-called democratic constitutions.”
A concerted campaign for constitutional change organised earlier this year by the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi collected five million signatures petitioning change to certain clauses of the constitution.
Even if the NLD is disappointed with recommendations the committee hands down, Mr Wilson doesn’t believe the party will replace Suu Kyi with someone who can legally run for president.
“There will be no change in NLD leadership unless Suu Kyi decides she wants to go,” he said.
Health reasons could decide that for her, he added.
Given her popularity and nation-wide profile, it’s unlikely the NLD would want to replace Suu Kyi with someone who can legally contest the leadership.
“The NLD has never had any plan for someone to deputise for Suu Kyi or be ready to succeed her,” Wilson said.
“They respect her. They would never think of challenging her leadership or her position.
“Because she has such authority and respect, to have her as the leader of the party is still incredibly important in an election.”
Speaker rather than President?
Aiming for the position of Speaker of one of the two houses of parliament, rather than as president, would still afford Suu Kyi with considerable status and power, Wilson added.
“Whether she would be satisfied with that, I don’t know,” he said.
“She might not want to do that for five years.”
Suu Kyi’s two adult sons, Alexander and Kim, were born in the UK, during the 1970s.
Both retain British citizenship. To assist their mother’s cause, they could apply for citizenship status in Myanmar. Whether this would be accepted is uncertain.
Some have suggested Suu Kyi legally separate herself from her sons – a scenario the public might support as a sacrifice for the good of the country.
“Apparently this happens sometimes in Myanmar, as it does in other Asian countries,” Wilson said.
He didn’t foresee Suu Kyi resorting to the measure.
“I think she is very firmly of the view, that this is an undemocratic restriction and it should be changed,” he said.
A power sharing deal with the military and other parties?
Another way out of the dilemma could come through the military, the ruling party, the opposition and ethnic parties reaching a compromise, as suggested by Igor Blazevic, head teacher at the Rangoon-based Educational Initiatives.
He proposes a power sharing deal, which he says would enable the winner of the parliamentary election to nominate the president, and 50 per cent of the ministries.
“Ethnic parties that were successful in the election could nominate one vice-president, the Upper House speaker and 25 per cent of ministries, including the Border Affairs Ministry,” he wrote in an article in The Irrawaddy.
That would see the military keeping 25 per cent of the reserved seats in parliament, and the post of defence minister.
Any recommend changes submitted by the Joint Committee to Review the Constitution are likely to undergo a lengthy process.
“After the parliamentary debate on the recommendations of the constitutional review committee, the parliament is expected to vote article by article and form a committee to draft a constitutional amendment bill”, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific PhD scholar Chit Win said.
Belinda Cranston is a writer based at the Australian National University’s College of Asia and the Pacific.
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