Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is on a mission. Or perhaps it’s a hiding.
In New York to address the security council of the United Nations, she aims to convince its permanent members that ahead of the findings as to the cause of the downing of MH17 over Ukraine last year, they should establish an independent tribunal to prosecute the perpetrators. The aircraft was shot down in the Donbas region by a missile on July 17th last year, with 298 people on board though the Dutch Safety Board is still investigating exactly what happened – what kind of missile shot it down amongst the most critical of the questions it needs to answer. A preliminary report issued last October raised questions about the movement of a Russian made BUK missile launcher from the Russian border to Luhansk in Ukraine. However, neither the technical nor criminal investigations are yet completed.
Preparing to put up a roadblock to Ms Bishop’s intention for a preparatory tribunal to be approved is of course Russia, with its veto power in the Security Council.
Moscow is widely suspected of having given one or more BUK missiles to pro Russia separatists who’ve been at war with the central Ukrainian government in Kiev for more than a year now. On the anecdotal evidence currently available, these separatists are reportedly responsible for the attack, which shattered the aircraft, sending so many innocent people plummeting to their death. Australia’s intense interest is born of the fact that 38 of those victims were either Australians or lived here. Still, the Dutch Safety Board’s final report isn’t due to be released until October.
Moscow has never accepted responsibility for having given or loaned any missiles to the separatists. It has constantly asserted that the civil war on its doorstep is not of its making and that there are no Russian forces on Ukrainian soil stoking the violence. It has also been keen to lay blame for the downing of MH17 elsewhere, primarily on the Ukrainian government – for either having permitted the Malaysian Airlines aircraft to fly over a war zone or for having fired the missile itself, intending to target separatist aircraft. Few outside of Russia believe either theory.
But one theory that holds more weight than any other is that the attack and the crash were a terrible and unintended mistake. Recordings of conversations between on the ground fighters and their commanders would seem to support this theory. There was unfeigned shock and horror when fighters discovered the aircraft was civilian and not military. The moral and legal question becomes – should they nonetheless be prosecuted?
The answer depends very much on whether the fighters responsible for firing the missile can actually be identified. It is a stretch to imagine that Moscow will hand the perpetrators over to the UN even if they are aware of their identities. If they can’t be identified and if Moscow refuses to play ball, whom would Foreign Minister Bishop propose putting before a UN constituted tribunal to prosecute?
There is another problem facing the Foreign Minister. And that is that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t exactly predisposed at the current time to giving the west what it wants. Russia’s economy is groaning from the impact of the west’s economic sanctions imposed after Moscow annexed Crimea where its Black Sea Fleet is based and which, prior to 1956 was Russian territory. Even anecdotally Russian business is flailing. Its currency has devalued to the point that the buying power of most salaries has halved. Shops, though far from empty, certainly look rather different since President Putin’s retaliatory sanctions against European and American imports. It may seem odd to outsiders that despite the degrading of relations with the west, the President remains hugely popular and support for the Crimean annexation remains high.
For Julie Bishop to get what she wants, she probably first needs to talk to Washington, London and Berlin about lifting the sanctions, showing good will in the hope of some return value.
Without that, the Foreign Minister’s quest sounds more like a feel good exercise, perhaps even one to deflect a little attention away from her governments woes at home, albeit from a woman who’s decisive actions in the sad aftermath of the crash led to deserved international praise.
Monica Attard is a Sydney based freelance journalist and former ABC foreign correspondent and senior broadcaster.
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