Comment: Labor has no appetite for leader change, despite gloomy polls

Bill Shorten has a tougher time against Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, but the Australian Labor Party has no appetite to return to chop and change leaders this time.

Bill Shorten, Labor, Labor leader

Bill Shorten Source: AAP

In the past, federal opposition parties have chopped and changed leaders as they looked for a winning formula. The big development these days is that Labor isn't doing that.

Tuesday's Newspoll survey in The Australian wasn't good for Bill Shorten with the "Better PM" rating down to 17 per cent,  but there is still no momentum in the Labor party for a change in leadership.

Due to party rules (brought in by Kevin Rudd) giving party members a vote in the leadership, Labor is being forced to grin and bear it rather than dump Mr Shorten in a caucus ballot. 

That is the plan for now, and in 2015, perhaps that is no bad thing. 

Throwing out opposition leaders isn't just a Labor tradition. When the coalition lost Government in 2007 and elected Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader he lasted nine months and 13 days. Malcolm Turnbull took over in September 2008 and held the post for one year, two months and 15 days before losing to Tony Abbott in December 2009.

For the Labor side during its last period in opposition Kim Beazley was leader for five years from 1996, then in quick succession there was Simon Crean (one year and 11 months), Mark Latham (one year and one month), Kim Beazley again (for a year and 10 months) then Kevin Rudd took Labor back into Government in 2007.

It is timely too to remember the Liberal years in Opposition from 1983 with Andrew Peacock, then John Howard, back to Peacock, onto John Hewson, Alexander Downer and then back to John Howard who won office in 1996.

In modern times, it had been almost normal for parties in opposition to change leaders while they adjusted to their time out of power. Revamped policy allowed a new leadership team to form and in many cases, waited for the Government to lose popularity and lose office. 

Labor-aligned-lobbyist Simon Banks from Hawker Britton saw many of those labor challenges first hand as a senior staffer for the Opposition when John Howard was Prime Minister. He says there is no move on to remove Bill Shorten.

"After the last decade of a revolving door of Labor leaders there is no appetite to change leaders and that is why the rules were changed." Simon Banks says.

As to the opinion polls, which have the Government ahead of Labor on the two party preferred vote 52 per cent to 48 per cent, Simon Banks says it is still around a year until the election is due. 

"This is still very much in the Turnbull honeymoon period," he told SBS.

The fact that Malcolm Turnbull is more popular that Bill Shorten is no surprise. Mr Shorten's better Prime Minister rating was much higher when he was up against the unpopular Tony Abbott.

Labor is not at panic stations yet. The majority of MPs are currently prepared to give him a go, mindful that the trajectory at the moment is pointing to a Labor loss at the next election.

Bill Shorten has been getting policy out in recent months, particularly on the digital economy, computer coding education and a framework (as yet unfunded) for the tertiary education sector. There has been a lot of work done by Labor already in the health portfolio under Shadow Minister for Health Catherine King.

Mr Shorten's announcement on a National Redress Scheme for survivors of institutional child sexual abuse is a result of good strong policy work and the advocacy of Labor Senator Claire Moore who has campaigned on this. The National Redress Scheme is a recommendation of the Royal Commission into Child Sexual Abuse.

Mr Shorten said that Labor would invest $33 million to implement the scheme.

"This includes an initial $20 million contribution to establish the National Redress Agency, as well as a National Redress Advisory Council to work with all governments and institutions on the development and operation of the scheme" he said.

The Government hasn't yet responded to this recommendation.

For Bill Shorten these are not easy days. He isn't popular and despite his many media appearances, his message isn't cutting through. Labor is behind the Government in terms of popularity as Malcolm Turnbull cements his leadership credentials. But at the moment the party is continuing with its current plan.

For today, there is nothing to see here.


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4 min read

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Updated

By Catherine McGrath
Source: SBS


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Comment: Labor has no appetite for leader change, despite gloomy polls | SBS News