With less than three weeks to go until polling day the major parties have starting ramping up their campaigning efforts. Both the Coalition and Labor have announced childcare policy platforms that are about appealing to a key, demographic of swinging voters: young families. Expect to see more key announcements on education, health and social services over the next three weeks.
But while the battle between Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten rages on, there are a number of no less important electoral fights underway that could have a significant impact on who forms government after July 2.
While the Coalition remain favourites to win the election outright, according to the betting markets, the odds on a hung Parliament, where neither party wins a majority, are about the same as the odds on a Labor victory.
Obviously, betting markets aren’t a perfect indicator of the election result, but with the polls pointing to a close result and a number of high profile independents throwing their hats into the ring, it’s worth assessing what the chances of a hung parliament are, and who might end up in the box seat.
In 2010, neither Labor nor the Coalition won the 76 seats needed to form majority government. The balance of power in the House of Representatives, where government is formed, was held by the Greens’ Adam Bandt and four independent MP’s: Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor. Bandt and all the independents bar Katter supported Labor in forming minority government.
This time around Bandt, Wilkie and Katter all remain in Parliament and are expected to win their seats at the upcoming election. Cathy McGowan, another independent MP elected from regional Victoria in 2013 is also expected to win back her seat. But there are signs that the current crossbench could expand, and that’s what could increase the chances of a hung Parliament.
Let’s take a look at where independents and minor parties might have a chance at breaking through this election.
The Greens are pouring resources into eight lower house seats they think they have a chance of winning. If the Liberals decide to preference the Greens ahead of Labor (as they did in 2010) the minor party would be a strong chance to up to three seats: Batman, Wills and Grayndler. Without Liberal preferences the challenge is much harder for the Greens, but they could still pick up the seat of Higgins on the back of Labor preferences, which are much more likely. But every seat the Greens win is a seat that makes it harder for Labor to form government in its own right, thereby increasing the chances of a hung parliament.
“Such a deal would likely lock Xenophon out of the lower house. It would be extraordinarily cynical for the major parties to act in that way, particularly for Labor to preference it’s major opponents.”
In terms of independents, Tony Windsor is re-contesting his seat of New England against the Nationals Barnaby Joyce and just today it was reported that Rob Oakeshott may be on the verge of announcing his candidacy as well. It’s likely Oakeshott would struggle, having left his campaign this late, but Windsor is a strong chance to take back the seat he held for over a decade.
The final wildcard of the election campaign is the Nick Xenophon Team. The popular independent Senator from South Australia is expected to win big in the Senate, potentially nabbing four seats. Xenophon is also running candidates in key lower house seats across the country, but is only expected to have a shot in two SA seats: Sturt, held by the Liberals’ Christopher Pyne and Mayo, held by Liberals’ Jamie Briggs.
Polls have shown more than 1 in 5 South Australians will vote for the Xenophon Team at this election. While Xenophon candidates are likely to come close to winning a couple of lower house seats, the end result will likely come down to Labor and Greens preferences.
The Greens have accused Labor of striking a deal with the Liberal party that would see them preference Christopher Pyne and Jamie Briggs ahead of Xenophon candidates, in return for Labor securing Liberal preferences in their close contests against the Greens.
Such a deal would likely lock Xenophon out of the lower house. It would be extraordinarily cynical for the major parties to act in that way, particularly for Labor to preference it’s major opponents.
Given Labor has no chance of winning the seats of Sturt and Mayo, and Xenophon has indicated he is willing to deal with Labor in the event of a hung Parliament, it objectively makes sense for Labor to do what they can to help Xenophon candidates unseat Liberal MP’s. If Labor does go ahead with this deal it indicates that they are willing to hand government back to the Coalition in order to protect sitting MP’s like David Feeney.
The closer the polls get the more likely we are to see a hung Parliament. But ultimately the final makeup of Parliament could be decided by cynical preference deals negotiated in complete secret that voters only find out about election day.
