If Australia had decided on a strategy to deliberately anger our closest neighbour, we probably could not have come up with a better plan than to not only spy on the Indonesian President himself, but also his wife and Vice-President Dr Boediono.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his Vice-President have very strong links with Australia and their warmth extended to our nation is genuine. It’s this warmth from the President towards Australia, where his son studied at university until two years ago, that makes the report of Australia spying on him and his family particularly hurtful.
Once we consider Indonesia’s history, where as a nation they were occupied by foreign countries for over 300 years, we can start to appreciate why anything that suggests interference with their sovereignty is guaranteed to cause a ‘prickly’ response. And so it is when a close neighbour such as Australia - and former ‘deputy sheriff’ of the region - is shown to have been spying on their most senior officials who are close friends of our country.
Unfortunately for the new Abbott government, this issue has another dimension to it that will further complicate and inflame an already very sensitive issue for our near neighbour: the upcoming nation election scheduled for 2014.
Already we have seen a rise in nationalistic sentiment throughout Indonesia as politicians and officials manoeuvre as a lead-up to next year’s election which promises to be not only democratic but also very robust. And an issue surrounding Indonesia’s sovereignty, or perceived threat to their independence, provides fertile ground for aspiring leaders to demonstrate their determination to ensure Indonesia is respected and acknowledged as a strongly independent and emerging power throughout the world.
The fact that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's party (The Democrat Party) is in disarray over corruption scandals, plus widespread domestic consensus that the President is a weak and ineffective leader, has further exacerbated the problem. It also provides us with an insight as to why the president is now taking such a hard-line approach on this spying issue. Unfortunately for Australia, and Prime Minister Tony Abbott, we are now caught-up in this volatile, unpredictable – and face-saving - environment.
Australia also needs to be aware that the current leadership in Indonesia is about as ‘pro-Australian’ as we are likely to see for many years to come. Indonesia will have a new president by this time next year and looking at the candidates it is a safe bet that they will be more self-focused, nationalistic and less Australia-friendly than President Yudhoyono.
The good news however, is that at a business-to-business level history shows our two countries have an extraordinary long and close working relationship that has survived despite the political bumps that inevitably occur between regional neighbours. We also enjoy very close community and charity links adding even further depth to the relationship.
Australia and Indonesia need each other. We have too much invested together as neighbours, so this crisis over spying will eventually be resolved and the relationship will remain strong.
But as the monsoon storm clouds brew over Java we are going to experience some turbulence and the ride is going to get bumpy. We will get through this storm, but in the short-term it’s going to be a case of, ‘please fasten your seat belts’.
Ross B. Taylor AM is the president of the Indonesia Institute.
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