Credit to Malcolm Turnbull for sticking around, when I would have advised him to leave.
In 2010, when he announced he was leaving parliament I thought it a good decision. When he refused to challenge at the start of this year, preferring to wait for Abbott to self destruct, I thought it risky – not because Abbott wouldn’t self destruct but because it gave time for other candidates to make their moves.
But in the end he made it.
The first thing that struck one was how much of a relief it was that Tony Abbott was no longer Prime Minister.
We didn’t need a comic to take Abbott down a peg, he did it every time he talked, every time he walked.
Gone immediately was the overt machismo, the testosterone-fuelled bravado, the sense that one deserved to be PM purely because you got up early and worked out with the AFP.
There are a multitude of reasons why Abbott finally was banished but overriding all of them was that he had become a walking joke.
The appointment of knights and dames, the use of flags at press conferences, the response of “stop the boats” and “death cult” regardless of the topic, the continual wearing of a blue tie long after any point about it had been made, the donning of military gear at any opportunity, the over-the-top bravado on any issue such as when he would talk of shirt-fronting Vladmir Putin.
We didn’t need a comic to take Abbott down a peg, he did it every time he talked, every time he walked. And in the end it became too much to ignore, even for those in the press gallery who had been suggesting that we would any moment soon see a “new Tony Abbott”. The switch to positivity and policy never came, and anyone who had observed Abbott over the course of his political career should have known it never would.
National security was Abbott’s only perceived winner – and it was what he turned to whenever he was in trouble. But he turned to it so often and for such obvious reasons that he cruelled it as a winning issue.
By the time Laura Tingle reported that the National Security Committee of the cabinet wanted a weekly national security “announceable”, the jig was up.
His end was perfectly in keeping with his time as leader.
He reportedly tendered his resignation to the Governor General via fax and gracelessly held off giving his concession speech for so long on Tuesday morning that by the time Turnbull was able to be sworn in, he had to delay Question Time.
Abbott’s concession speech failed to refer to Turnbull, let alone wish him well – which is pretty much the cornerstone of every transition of leaders in a democracy.
Now we have the Turnbull era – an era that may be measured in months, or if he plays his cards right, in years.
Laughably, he complained about a “febrile media culture has developed that rewards treachery” – this from a man who could scarce get through a supposedly apolitical moment such as welcoming a foreign leader without attacking the ALP.
To top it all, despite announcing he will remain in parliament, he refused to show his face in Question Time after Monday.
His Prime Ministership will mostly serve as a reminder of how poorly politics became in this country over the past seven years that not only did the Liberal Party see fit to elect him leader, but that the ALP was so inept, it made him a viable alternative as Prime Minister.
And now we have the Turnbull era – an era that may be measured in months, or if he plays his cards right, in years.
The beginning naturally involves journalists reporting favourably on his performances – especially in Question Time. Much of that however is due to the relief from the repetitive ignorance of Tony Abbott and the convoluted monotony of Bill Shorten.
But those wishing to suggest grand times ahead would do well to remember 2008-09. When Turnbull took over the leadership seven years ago (almost to the day) he too talked of his humility and his desire for optimism (indeed his first speech as PM this week bore marked similarity to his first as Liberal leader).
Those expecting Turnbull to embrace a carbon price and marriage equality in his first week have little sense of how little power Turnbull has.
But his need to prove to everyone that he was the smartest in whichever room he walked into quickly became apparent and in the end became grating and led to his inability to consult with those in the party room he perceived as inferior.
Yes we are well to be rid of three word slogans, but for all Turnbull’s desire to advocate and not lecture, it did not take long this week in question time for his need to lecture the ALP and show off to come to the fore.
On Wednesday for example, Mark Butler came to the dispatch box and in response to some gentle ribbing from the Government front bench about his new glasses he laughing asked, “Do I look smarter?”
It was a line said without malice to anyone and was rather self deprecating, and yet Turnbull inexplicably felt the need to rise to his feet and show off his wit, saying, “The honourable member asked if he looked smarter, and the answer to that is clearly no!”
Such responses get a pass in his first week. Many in the gallery will fawn and call it Keatingesque, but it doesn’t take long for such actions to seem more smug than smart.
And as ever with all leaders it will come down to policy and process.
Those expecting Turnbull to embrace a carbon price and marriage equality in his first week have little sense of how little power Turnbull has. He was elected much like Kevin Rudd was to the ALP – a leader with little power at the party level but who is viewed as popular with the broader public.
To attain the leadership he has had to persuade the conservative rump that he is not about to march them to the left and that he will consult with them. Alas in the current Liberal Party a march to the left involves consulting with those for whom climate change is just a UN conspiracy.
At that point we shall see whether his charm works on voters, or whether Malcolm’s affection for his own ability is viewed as misplaced arrogance.
For now Turnbull will be content to placate them and support policies such as direct action – no matter how silly he looked in Question Time this week arguing that it didn’t matter how much it cost to reduce emissions so long as they were reduced.
Eventually, however the desire and need for Turnbull to discard Abbott’s policies and set his own agenda will rise.
He is fortunate that not since 2007 and the election of Kevin Rudd has there been a leader of whom most of the population – even voters from the opposite side – essentially hope he does well.
But much of that wish is based on the long held false view of Turnbull as some sort of lefty in disguise. He never has been thus, and should he remain in the job long enough, voters will find that his economics are well to the right of what they would imagine them to be.
At that point we shall see whether his charm works on voters, or whether Malcolm’s affection for his own ability is viewed as misplaced arrogance.
Turnbull is fortunate that unlike with Rudd if Abbott sticks around no one will look to him with any longing.
As such he does possess the ability to end this run of turnstile leadership, but he will need to do better than he did when he was last leader.
Many are wondering if he learned any lessons from that time. For mine, his performances in parliament this week betray little change. The, shall we politely say, extreme self confidence that brought him unstuck last time is still very much there.
Rest assured no focus group will ever be needed to encourage the Liberal Party to “let Malcolm be Malcolm” – he could never be anything but.
We wait to see if it works better as Prime Minister than it did as Leader of the Opposition.
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