Commodity price falls tipped to continue

The price of Australia's top two exports - iron ore and coal - will decline further next year, says NAB economists.

As the non-mining sectors of the economy struggle, economists are tipping more pain for the resources sector, with prices for coal and iron ore to fall next year.

Australia's most valuable export, iron ore, is tipped to average $US57 a tonne in calendar 2016, down from a forecast $US60 in 2015, according to economists at National Australia Bank.

A sharp fall in the iron ore price in the early months of 2015 has wiped billions of dollars from the federal government's revenue forecasts.

NAB said another major export, thermal coal, is expected to fall to $US62 a tonne in 2016, from $US67.80 a tonne, while metallurgical coal - used in the making of steel - is forecast to average $US95 a tonne, down from $US105.

China's slowing economy and its movement away from heavy industry towards services means weaker demand for steel, which is a key factor in falling commodity prices.

The Australian mining sector's decline after its China-driven boom has increased the need for the local economy's non-mining sectors to step up.

But a quarterly survey of business investment plans released last week indicated a likely fall in capital spending in 2015/16, despite record low interest rates that were hoped to spark economic activity.


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Source: AAP


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