Company profits underpin GDP predictions

Economists stuck to their growth predictions for Wednesday's national accounts as company profits grew by a solid 2.2 per cent in the December quarter.

The Turnbull government will be hoping to turn the focus back on the Australian economy when official growth figures are released this week after a series of poor opinion poll results and weeks of self-inflicted distractions.

The national accounts - a comprehensive guide to the wellbeing of the economy - will be released on Wednesday, with economists at this stage expecting them to show solid but unspectacular growth for the December quarter.

It's expected the economy grew by around 0.5 per cent in the final three months of 2017, resulting in the annual rate easing to 2.5 per cent from 2.8 per cent as of the September quarter.

Economists largely stuck to their earlier predictions after a spray of new figures on Monday which showed a lift in company profits in the December quarter but only a modest rise in business inventories - stock on shelves and in warehouses - suggesting no contribution to growth.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics business indicators report also showed wages and salaries grew by a solid one per cent in the quarter, although economists said this was the result of the 400,000 jump in employment last year rather than suggesting bigger pay awards.

Gross operating company profits grew 2.2 per cent in the December quarter to $81 billion.

"Corporate Australia is in great shape," Commonwealth Securities chief economist Craig James said.

Economists will finalise their growth forecasts after international trade and government spending data are released on Tuesday.

Their preliminary growth forecasts take into account previously released figures showing a pick-up in retail spending, more subdued business investment, a sharp drop in construction work, and an indication that exports were a likely drag on growth in the quarter.

An annual economic growth rate of 2.5 per cent would be in line with the Reserve Bank's forecast it made last month.

The central bank will hold its monthly board meeting on Tuesday but it is again expected to leave the cash rate at a record low 1.5 per cent which is where it's been since August 2016.

"They (RBA) are likely to still reference positive global growth, positive domestic growth metrics and their expectation that the path back to meeting its inflation target will be gradual," National Australia Bank economists say.

Since the February board meeting, employment has continued to grow but wage growth has remained subdued.

Wages growth is seen as a key factor in determining the timing of an eventual rise in interest rates.


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Source: AAP



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