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Consumers unsettled by persistent GST talk

Consumers are hearing a lot more about the GST and don't necessarily like it but confidence overall remains reasonably solid.

GST paid indications on receipts
A proposal to raise the GST could be on the agenda at meetings between federal and state leaders. (AAP) Source: AAP

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Source: AAP


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There are early signs the political debate surrounding the GST could be unnerving consumers, but there are other indications retailers will have a profitable festive season.

Every quarter Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, as part of their monthly consumer confidence survey, poll Australians about the news items they recall.

More than 40 per cent of respondents recalled "budget and taxation issues", a number that has doubled since September.

They also assessed that news as "considerably less favourable".

"Presumably speculation around tax changes, particularly with respect to the GST, is beginning to unnerve respondents," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.

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Overall confidence eased 0.8 per cent in December, retaining most of the four per cent jump seen in November and still showing optimists outweigh pessimists, albeit only slightly.

An analysis by Deloitte Access Economics said confidence, along with better news on the jobs front, are factors in its expectation that retailers should enjoy a lucrative Christmas.

But it also believes the key drivers to spending over the past two years - cheap credit and increasing wealth through rising house prices - are "losing their punch".

"The bad news is that the recent sugar hit won't necessarily see retail return to the kind of glory days it experienced pre-GFC," Deloitte partner David Rumbens says.

Other figures on Wednesday showed demand for mortgages eased by 0.5 per cent in October and among housing investors, the value of loans tumbled 6.1 per cent.

Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird says the figures are part of a wider suite of data which paints the picture of a cooling housing market.

However, business consulting firm BDO is still optimistic about the outlook for retailers, who have increased their marketing investment to take advantage of improved sentiment.

BDO retail specialist John Bresolin believes low interest rates and the lower Australian dollar will combine to make shopping locally more attractive to consumers.

Confidence will be put to the test on Thursday when monthly labour force figures for November are released.

Economists are expecting a weaker result with the jobless rate rising to six per cent from 5.9 per cent, after the surprise fall from 6.2 per cent in October.

The number of people employed is also expected to drop by 10,000 after a large 58,600 rise in the previous month.


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