As Australians prepare for Christmas and holiday plans, COVID-19 might make a quiet comeback.
Paul Griffin, an infectious disease physician and clinical microbiologist from the University of Queensland, says while COVID-19 remains unpredictable, it is fairly likely we'll see another wave relatively soon, on the balance of probability.
"It's not necessarily predictable just yet, but we certainly should be prepared because it would seem likely," Griffin told SBS News.
Since the start of the pandemic, Australia has experienced an increase in COVID-19 cases during the summer and winter months.
Data from the Critical Health Resources Information System (CHRIS) show that, since 2022, the number of COVID-19 cases in intensive care units historically has increased from December to January. CHRIS monitors intensive care unit activity.
Several factors are behind Australia's COVID-19 summer waves, including the winter in the northern hemisphere and Christmas travellers.
COVID-19 travelling from northern hemisphere
"Transmission is more likely when the conditions suit, as in winter. But on our side of the world, if the transmission increases on the other side of the world, we see an increase in cases here as well," Griffin said.
"While we can't necessarily predict a wave, it is likely that, due to those factors, we will see an increase at some point in the not-too-distant future."
However, data shows the recent COVID-19 summer wave in Australia was not as severe as the previous ones.
During a surge of cases in January 2023, the highest weekly average of ICU cases reached 113. In January 2025, this number decreased by 34 during the same period, according to CHRIS.
"We certainly shouldn't get complacent and assume that's going to continue to be the case ... We do need to make sure we continue to be prepared and not just to assume that it's going to be something that gets milder and milder," Griffin said.
Some other experts believe the current COVID-19 pattern will continue.
Catherine Bennett, chair in epidemiology at Deakin University, told SBS News the COVID-19 situation in the previous summer was "one of the least detectable waves".
"There was a bit of a rise over the summer period, that probably coincided with some people travelling to the northern hemisphere, where they were going through a winter wave," she told SBS News.
As of 27 November, 6,524 COVID-19 cases had been reported in November, according to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System, an almost 11 per cent decrease from October.
Bennett said she thinks Australia could see more COVID activity but it "thankfully won't be like our winter waves".
"It's probably, hopefully, going to be like last year [where] there's no distinct wave where suddenly there's a lot more people sick, but there's just signs of more activity."
Bennett said the COVID-19 summer waves in Australia have faded away somewhat over time.
"A lot of it's to do with our natural immunity maturity," she said.
"With the virus circulating in the community without getting really sick, people are still boosting their immunity."
People with health conditions should be prepared
But with a new COVID-19 wave or just increased activity, experts agree vulnerable people should be better prepared for the holiday season.
According to the Department of Health, people aged 65 or older, pregnant women, and those with specific conditions such as a weakened immune system, neurological disease, chronic lung disease, heart disease, obesity, diabetes and chronic kidney disease are at "a higher risk of becoming very sick from COVID-19".
People over 75 are recommended to receive two booster doses per year, and those over 18 with a weakened immune system can consider a second dose.
Bennett said now is the time these people should be considering a second dose due to the increase in activities over the summer.
"Having a dose now and then, having another one, in May before we go into the winter wave, which is usually a bit more substantial, that's probably the timing that will give them the best benefit," she said.
Remaining home while having symptoms and wearing masks remain inseparable ways of fighting COVID-19, Bennett said.
"If you're unwell at Christmas and the whole family's getting together, all the generations, it's better for the family if you don't go," she said.
"Putting on a mask just helps you not ruin someone else's Christmas or worse, pass the virus onto someone else who might be more vulnerable to severe illness."
Flu on the rise
While the next days and weeks will determine the situation of the COVID-19 cases in Australia, another respiratory disease is at unseasonably elevated levels in some parts of the country.
From 1 January until this week, the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System reported 1,713 Australians per 100,000 were infected with the flu, making it the highest year on record.
As of Thursday, over 456,000 Australians have been diagnosed with flu, and more than 52,000 of those infections were in kids under four.
Griffin said this is "definitely not usual".
"We saw high numbers of interseasonal flu cases at the start of the year, and we continue to see more flu than we might expect, given that we're past the peak period that we normally see in the cooler time of the year," Griffin said.
"This year, we're going to probably surpass all records for flu cases and maybe even exceed 500,000 cases."
Earlier this month NSW health authorities said: "Influenza is stable at a moderate level of activity and is driven predominantly by influenza A. This sustained activity is unusual for this time of year."
The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners reports this year, only 25 per cent of Australian children aged six months to five years received vaccinations — the lowest level since 2021.
And at least 60 per cent of those aged 65 and over were vaccinated, marking the lowest level since 2020.
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