Mike Baird looks set to lead the coalition to a second term of government in NSW in early counting.
After 90 minutes into the count of votes, the ABC is projecting the coalition to win at least 49 seats - two more than the 47 needed to form a majority in the NSW parliament.
Labor is projected to win 30, with one to the Greens and an independent, and 12 others undecided.
ABC election analyst Antony Green says on the count so far, Labor's vote is up 9.6 per cent, while both the Liberal and National parties are down 2.9 per cent each.
But that change won't be enough to change government.
Earlier in the evening, former deputy Labor leader Carmel Tebbutt acknowledged it would be difficult for the ALP to fight back from its electoral humiliation of 2011 when the party was reduced to 20 of the 93 seats in the parliament.
"It was an absolute thrashing for Labor last time and we're certainly looking for a credible comeback from that position," Ms Tebbutt told the ABC.
Deputy Liberal leader Gladys Berejiklian said the government had been expecting a correction in the vote on Saturday.
"Labor's vote was at its lowest in nearly a century last election ... the whole purpose of tonight will be to see how far that correction goes," she said.
Some of the key seats decided so far are Premier Baird's own seat of Manly, and Ms Berejiklian has retained Willoughby. Prue Goward has retained Goulburn despite a shaky start.
Opposition treasurer Michael Daley has retained Maroubra while high-profile candidate, local school principal Jihad Dib, will enter parliament as the Labor MP for Lakemba.
Labor has also picked a number of seats, including Wyong, Maitland, Macquarie Fields, and the Blue Mountains.
"So there are seats falling but not nearly enough to get them close to government. And we have a number of seats still in doubt at this stage," Mr Green said.
One of the key bellwether seats Monaro, which takes in Queanbeyan, is still in play. The seat has gone with the winning party in 25 of the past 28 elections.
Sitting Nationals MP John Barilla acknowledged the "Abbott factor" could hurt his numbers in the southern NSW seat.
"There's no question about that - and the Labor Party and the unions have used it," he told ABC TV.
Ms Tebbutt said Labor had anticipated picking up between 10 and 15 seats, and had not expected to get back into power.
"We want our base, our heartland to come back to us. It's about renewal, new candidates, new people in the party, in the Parliament, and I think we will see that."
Ms Berejiklian said she had thought the swing to the Labor Party would've been higher.
"If that trend continues, I think the Labor Party swing to them tonight is quite underwhelming given what we anticipated the correction would be tonight," she said.
East Hills and Oatley, which Labor had expected to return, are still in doubt. Mr Green expects Oatley to be retained by the Liberal's Kevin Green.
Strathfield - where high-profile ALP candidate Jodi McKay was expected to win - is too close to call.
Ms Berejiklian said she would not concede the mid-western Sydney seat yet.
"Our scrutineers are telling us we're in with a shot. That's one of those seats that will go down to the wire."
The inner-city seats of Balmain and Newtown - where the main contest is between the Greens and Labor - are also very close.
Share
