CPI figures expected to trigger a rate cut

The possibility of another interest rate cut in August is hinging on the results of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week.

Borrowers may soon find out if interest rates could go lower, when the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released on Wednesday.

An AAP survey of 12 economists reveals a median forecast for June's CPI to show an average increase of 0.5 per cent in prices over the June quarter and 2.5 per cent for the year to the June quarter.

Underlying inflation, which excludes the most volatile price movements and is the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred measure, is also expected to be at 0.5 per cent for the quarter and 2.3 per cent for the year.

Inflation is an important factor in the RBA's decision-making when it comes to the cash rate.

In the minutes of its July meeting, the RBA said the inflation outlook "could still provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand".

CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said the key upside risk to inflation would be the unwinding of discounting, although low wage expectations would ensure inflation remained low.

He said the RBA was still expected to cut the cash rate again in August.

"There's no better time than straight after the inflation result to give them a reason to be cutting," he said.

"But I think after that, the lower currency is doing enough to rebalance the economy away from mining and to other sectors like exports, so they will probably stay on hold after that."


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Source: AAP


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