Credit growth too slow to sway RBA's hand

Credit outstanding to the private sector rose in February, but signs of an accleration are too faint to stop any plans by the RBA to cut the cash rate.

Lending growth is picking up pace, but the acceleration has been too gradual to have any bearing on interest rate moves.

Credit grew by 0.5 per cent in February, exactly the same as the average for preceding 12 months.

Credit grew by 6.2 per cent over the year to February, up from 4.3 per cent over the previous year, according to the figures released by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

That's an acceleration, but it won't give anyone whiplash.

The strongest growth came in lending for investor housing, which rose by just over 10 per cent in the past year.

That's the rate set to trigger the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to consider using its powers to bring individual lenders to heel.

But the pace of growth in the latest six months is no faster than in the previous six.

In any case, that's APRA's problem, not the RBA's.

Lending to businesses also grew faster over the past year, but the growth rate - 5.6 per cent, versus 2.4 per cent a year ago - is now only about how fast the economy usually grows.

In other words, lending to business will help drive the economy along at its current sedate pace, but will not be enough to shift it into a higher gear.

As a result, it won't be enough to induce the RBA to step back from the April interest rate cut the futures market currently expects is a 75 per cent chance.

The RBA could probably find reasons to stay on the sidelines - as it did in March.

Figures from the Housing Industry Association show sales of new homes hit their highest level since May 2011, confirming the low interest rate regime is working.

But a barely perceptible lift in credit growth would not be a convincing argument for leaving the cash rate steady at 2.25 per cent.


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Source: AAP


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