Recent cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean may increase the chance that Australia will be affected by a drought-inducing El Nino later this year.
The Bureau of Meteorology says severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi, straddling the equator, had produced one of the strongest reversals in trade winds in recent years.
"This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months," the BoM said in its latest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) statement on Tuesday.
"However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend."
All eight international models surveyed by the bureau suggest ocean temperatures will exceed El Nino thresholds by mid-year.
But the BoM warns that model outlooks spanning February to May generally have lower accuracy than those made at other times of the year.
El Nino is often associated with below-average rainfall during winter and spring over eastern Australia, and above-average temperatures over the country's southern half.
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