Researchers based in the United States say a complex system of data mining developed to better understand the tactics used by Islamic State could help pre-empt future attacks, and ultimately defeat the extremist group.
An analysis of 2200 incidents involving the Islamic State has established a link between low-level actions such as attacks using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and suicide bombings, and large-scale conventional assaults using traditional military tactics.
The research, presented for the first time in Sydney on Tuesday at an international conference on data mining, has attracted the attention of organisations within the US military.
Paulo Shakarian, the director of the Cyber-Socio Intelligent Systems Lab at Arizona State University and report author, said while Islamic State is good at adapting its tactics, the research revealed a set of "pre-conditions" that come before more conventional infantry operations.
The low-level actions are often a distraction before a large-scale attack, said Dr Shakarian, who served as a US army officer in Iraq in 2006.
The 2200 incidents analysed occurred in the second half of last year.
"We saw that the use of car bombs often preceded spikes in conventional attacks," Dr Shakarian told AAP.
"The majority of the car bombs would occur in high-visibility places, namely Baghdad."
Unlike a large-scale ground assault, an attack with a car bomb is easier to disguise and requires fewer people to carry out.
"What happens in the aftermath of a car bomb? There comes all kinds of paramilitary and local police to seal off areas ... There would be an increase in military forces around Baghdad," he said.
The increased incidence of indirect fire and a spike in car bombs and use of IEDs occurs as Islamic State forces prepare to carry out more conventional attacks to "draw away Iraqi security forces" from the real target.
Dr Shakarian said incidents in Baiji and Balad, two cities north of Baghdad and on the road to the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul, presented examples of several "pre-conditions" occurring in tandem.
As Islamic State forces hit Baiji with indirect fire, there were attacks on Balad and a spike in the use of car bombs.
"The reason why we think this showed up along with the Balad infantry operations was because the Islamic State was trying to conduct a terror-style operation to distract Iraqi security forces so they don't go and reinforce in the city they're doing their conventional operations," Dr Shakarian said.
Dr Shakarian says that by better understanding the tactics used by Islamic State, coalition forces will be better placed to pre-empt attacks.
"The point of doing this research wasn't for everyone to be in awe of how clever these guys are, it's to gain an understanding," he said.
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