Australian military forces face a growing risk that an adversary could land a lucky punch from one of the new submarines or anti-ship missiles now being fielded across the region.
A new study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute says a growing regional military capability poses a risk that Defence will lose its capability edge.
A direct attack on Australia remains unlikely but the defensive advantage of our geography could be eroded as other countries buy new submarines, warships and combat aircraft.
The study says the implications are significant, with the Australian Defence Force likely to face more sophisticated capabilities if it ever deployed forces into the region.
"While the ADF won't lose its capability edge in Southeast Asia in the medium term, in the short term investments in certain platforms increase the chance of a lucky punch," author Sheryn Lee says.
That punch could be a torpedo from one of the increasing numbers of submarines now entering service across the region or an anti-ship missile launched from a small patrol boat.
The big spender on defence remains China, which is improving naval forces and also its ability to deny the US Navy easy access to its regional waters.
Taiwan and Vietnam are modernising in response to China, South Korea is modernising in response to North Korea and Japan, while the latter is upgrading its armed forces as part of a more robust defence outlook and also in response to China.
Other southeast Asian nations are also modernising, some from a low base. One Philippines navy warship was built during WWII.
Indonesia's defence spending has grown but remains less than one per cent of its GDP. It has ambitious plans to modernise its air force and navy, acquiring new warships and 12 submarines.
Ms Lee, a Macquarie University academic, says the new Defence white paper will need to address how the ADF will modernise air and maritime capabilities in a neighbourhood that is becoming more complex.
But that doesn't mean planning for war against China or a southeast Asian nation.
Instead, future force structuring should look to maintain a small but technologically superior force capable of supporting allied operations in the broader region.
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