Defence is likely to get all the funds it needs if there's a major strategic crisis, but otherwise health, welfare and education are likely to trump promised defence funding increases, a leading analyst predicts.
Mark Thomson, from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says all six defence white papers since 1976 promised defence funding increases but just one actually delivered.
That was the 2000 paper which followed the 1999 East Timor crisis and was speedily followed by the 9/11 terror attacks in the United States.
Dr Thomson told the Australian Defence Magazine conference in Canberra that voters at the 2013 election were mightily displeased with Labor but their support for minor parties indicated they weren't running with open arms to the coalition.
The government would have to bear that in mind as it considered how much to cut health, welfare or education to fund their promised growth of the defence budget from the current 1.6 per cent to two per cent of GDP.
"Sure, if there's a clash in the South China Sea or a strategic crisis of seismic proportion, defence will get the money it's presently been promised," he said.
Failing that, political reality, especially on domestic issues, would probably dominate.
Defence Minister David Johnston said the government's "realistic and achievable" plan for defence would be outlined in a new white paper due for release in early 2015.
