Defence's longstanding shortfall in its ability to detect, track and destroy enemy submarines remains a significant shortcoming which won't be fixed for years, a new study says.
Andrew Davies, analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says that will improve as new MH-60R Romeo helicopters enter service.
But anti-submarine capability of the Anzac frigates is increasingly dated and won't improve until the three new air warfare destroyers enter service from 2017 and new future frigates, designed specifically for anti-submarine operations, arrive next decade.
"Given the proliferation of submarines around the Indo-Pacific, this is a significant shortcoming," he said.
In a report card on navy capability, he said the navy was in a state of transition and rejuvenation, with a range of new equipment entering service.
Some is already here, with HMAS Canberra, the first of two new large amphibious ships, now in service.
Both will provide a quantum leap in ability to conduct amphibious operations.
Anzac frigates, once dismissed as "floating targets", are now equipped with an advanced air defence system which will carry over to their replacements.
From a collapse of submarine availability in 2009, including a short period when none were available for operations, implementation of maintenance reforms has significantly increased availability of the six Collins subs.
After a troubled development, the Collins boats are now performing well and are highly regarded by ally nations.
On the downside, intensive border protection operations have meant a decline in serviceability of the Armidale-class patrol boats, now set to be replaced early by a larger vessel.
As well, the first of perhaps a dozen new submarines could still be 12 years away.
That means the Collins subs will likely need an expensive refresh of technological systems if a capability gap is to be avoided.
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