If there's a sense of deja vu about the Tasmanian election, it's because it could turn out to be a carbon copy of the federal poll six months before.
When voters on the island go to the polls on March 15 they'll be contemplating an unpopular minority government and a Labor-Greens alliance.
They'll hear more of a Liberal opposition leader decrying the "experiment" as a failure and they'll even get a Palmer United Party (PUP) huffing and puffing about their man getting the top job.
The federal election in September was a disaster for Labor and the Greens in Tasmania.
The reality of a stagnant economy and a stream of bad news on jobs caused voters to abandon their traditional parties.
This saw the ALP, which before the national election held four of the state's five seats lose three of them, along with a senator.
It also saw the Greens vote halve to 8.1 per cent.
The worst-hit area economically, the state's northwest, threw up senator-elect Jacqui Lambie from the PUP.
Polls suggest there's more of the same on the way after 16 years of Labor rule, the last four with the Greens.
With no mining boom to prop it up, Tasmania has been hit hard by global financial woes and the high Australian dollar.
Its one-time powerhouse, the forestry sector, is a pale shadow of its former self.
Unemployment is the highest in the country and the number one issue.
The opposition blames the Labor-Greens deal, which included two cabinet ministers from the minor party, for stifling development.
The ALP is treading carefully, defending its four years in bed with the Greens.
But, like their federal counterparts did, they have severed ties as an election looms.
The ALP and Greens have long differed on the proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill and on mining in the Tarkine region.
Premier Lara Giddings has sought to spotlight those differences by axing the Greens' ministers and legislating to remove barriers to the $2.5 billion mill's construction.
She has pledged never to govern with the Greens again.
It might be too little too late with the ALP's latest polling figure just 18 per cent.
Liberal leader Will Hodgman says its too cute.
"Labor and the Greens and any other minor party will do those deals simply to form government again if given half the chance," he said.
With her approval rating at 22 per cent, Premier Giddings might be thankful the federal parallels end with no Kevin Rudd lurking in the wings.
There's also another difference to the federal election and she's banking on it - six months of the Abbott government.
Ms Giddings says it is threatening Tasmania's share of GST revenue and programs being rolled out first in the state such as the National Broadband Network and National Disabilities Insurance Scheme.
"We have an enemy before us called Tony Abbott and the coalition government nationally that is taking way reforms that we fought so hard for," she said.
" ... We hear premiers Colin Barnett, Campbell Newman, Barry O'Farrell and others around the nation threatening to change the GST redistribution."
The opposition is already branding the premier's tactics a scare campaign.
Tasmania's unique Hare-Clark electoral system delivers five members in each of the state's five electorates.
Labor and the Liberals each currently have 10 members - two from each electorate - in the 25-seat lower house.
After 16 years in the wilderness, the Liberals need to boost that to three members in three electorates to rule in majority.
That is most likely to happen in the seats of Bass, Braddon and Lyons - the three the Liberals won at the federal poll.
Like Tony Abbott before him, Mr Hodgman has made "majority government" a mantra.
The Liberal leader has ruled out governing with the support of any other party - not just the Greens, but the PUP and even traditional coalition partner The Nationals.
The PUP is in a race against time to be registered but is considered to be in with a chance of snatching a seat in Braddon.
It leaves open the possibility of the Liberals winning 12, the PUP one and Mr Hodgman refusing to govern.
What sort of political crisis would unfold, and how it would be resolved, is anyone's guess.
The Greens face a tough battle to hang on to their seats, but the Hare-Clark system means they are always a chance.
They polled 21.6 per cent in 2010, delivering them five seats and the balance of power, but their challenge will be getting close to that figure again after the poor result in September.
Leader Nick McKim says, far from stymying it, the party is driving sustainable economic development in the state.
"We've seen figures released that show Tasmania's unemployment rate coming down for the fifth consecutive month, bucking the national trend, precisely because of the four years of Greens in government driving our economic vision of jobs and prosperity in the new economy," he said.
The most significant similarity between September and March is likely to be the outcome - comfortable Liberal victory.
But like many destinations in Tasmania, it might take a few twists in the road to get there.
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