In brief
- The fallout with Giorgia Meloni leaves Europe with few leaders able to claim a close relationship with Donald Trump.
- Experts said it's increasingly unclear whether any European leader has his ear.
When Donald Trump returned to the White House last year, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was the only European leader to attend the inauguration.
Seventeen months later, their relationship is publicly breaking down, as the two right-wing leaders trade barbs on social media.
Trump's relationships with traditional European allies have further strained in his second term, and he's become increasingly unpopular among voters in much of Western Europe.
He's clashed with leaders including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over his decision to go to war with Iran.
And earlier this year, he shattered trust within the NATO military alliance with threats to take over Greenland.
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The deterioration of the relationship with Meloni raises questions about who, if anyone, still has the US president's ear in Europe.
Why are Trump and Meloni clashing?
Meloni was viewed as one of the few leaders capable of acting as a bridge between Trump and Europe, dubbed a "Trump whisperer" by some commentators.
But cracks appeared after the US and Israel started a war with Iran earlier this year, triggering global oil price surges, damaging European economies and igniting strong anti-war sentiment in Italy.
In April, Trump lashed out at Pope Leo XIV after the pontiff denounced the war in the Middle East, criticised Trump's threat to destroy Iranian civilisation, and called on the US president to find an "off-ramp" to end the conflict.
Facing domestic pressure at the time, Meloni said Trump's comments about the pope were "unacceptable", prompting a rebuke from Trump.
Italy had also denied the use of an airbase in Sicily to US military planes carrying weapons for the war in Iran, saying the Americans had not followed the necessary procedures.
To onlookers at the G7 summit in France last week, Trump and Meloni appeared as though they might have reconciled.
That impression was short-lived. On Friday, Italian TV channel La7 quoted Trump as saying Meloni "begged me to take a picture with her".
"I wouldn't have taken it, but I felt sorry for her," Trump said, according to the broadcaster's translation.
Responding in a video on social media, Meloni said Trump's statements were fabricated.
"I am frankly astonished. I don't know why the president of the United States behaves like this towards his allies. It is not the first time," she said.
"It is disappointing that he does not show the same determination with the enemies of the West and of the United States, whose leaders he instead treats with far greater indulgence. Neither I nor Italy ever beg."
When Trump repeated his assertion on Truth Social and attacked her political popularity, Meloni criticised what she called "constant, unprovoked attacks".
"As for my popularity, being your friend certainly has not helped it," she posted.
Italy's foreign minister Antonio Tajani cancelled an upcoming visit to the US over the row.
What this spells for Trump's relationships in Europe
Meloni and Viktor Orbán, the former right-wing populist leader of Hungary, were two of Trump's closest allies in Europe.
But while Orbán enjoyed Trump's admiration, he was often isolated within the European Union, in part due to his close ties with Russia.
In April, despite a campaign trail appearance by US vice president JD Vance during Hungary's election, Orbán lost in a landslide.
"Orbán had the complete package of: not only was he very ideologically aligned with Trump, he was constantly heaping praise on Trump, and he had a similarly sceptical position towards Ukraine," said David Smith, an associate professor in American politics and foreign policy at the University of Sydney.
"Now with him gone, basically every leader in Europe is a long way apart from Trump when it comes to Ukraine," he told SBS News.
"I don't think there's really anyone in Europe with Trump's ear."
While Meloni and Trump shared ideological affinities, it's difficult for nationalists from different countries to form durable alliances, according to Smith.
"Even though Meloni might have styled herself as being like an Italian Trump, she couldn't tolerate the ways that Trump just completely disrespected the national interests of European countries, including Italy," he said.
Jessica Genauer, an associate professor in international relations at the University of New South Wales, said European leaders were increasingly concluding that being seen as too close to Trump carried domestic political risks.
She pointed to his criticism of Europe, reluctance to back Ukraine in its defence against Russia, and willingness to enter conflict without consulting allies.
She suggested leaders like Meloni might also have taken lessons from Orbán's electoral defeat.
"It's very difficult for any European leader to see it as beneficial to be close to Trump, even if they might align on socio-cultural issues, because the military defence of Europe, the economic well-being of Europe, are ultimately much more important for leaders right now in terms of their domestic political popularity," she told SBS News.
She described Trump's pushes to acquire Greenland earlier this year as an irreparable "breaking point" in the US-EU relationship.
"Even if Trump doesn't repeat those threats, the fact that a US president was willing to threaten an invasion of NATO territory, essentially broke something in the US-EU relationship that really cannot be repaired," she said.
Can any European leader bridge the divide?
Both Smith and Genauer said there were no clear figures in Europe who still hold any significant influence over Trump.
NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte — who made headlines for calling Trump "daddy" at an international summit last year — has maintained a friendly alliance with Trump, but Smith questioned how much Rutte has actually managed to accomplish in doing so.
"We have not seen any improvement in Trump's relationship with NATO over the second term. We've seen US military aid to Ukraine cut by 99 per cent. That is the single big issue," he said.
Trump has also ordered or threatened the withdrawal of US troops from several NATO countries this year, including Germany, Poland and Italy.
"In my lifetime, there has never been a more tense relationship between the US and Europe," Smith said.
French President Emmanuel Macron is one of the few European leaders who has maintained a relatively strong relationship with Trump, having dealt with him throughout both of Trump's presidencies.
Last week, Macron hosted Trump for a lavish dinner at the Palace of Versailles — which he had described as "an instrument for influence" — in an effort to pull Trump closer to Europe and keep him at the G7 summit until its end.
Though Trump's relationship with Macron has run hot and cold over the years, Trump made the surprise move there of signing an initial deal to end the war in Iran.
But Genauer noted that Trump's history suggests even leaders who secure diplomatic wins can quickly fall out of favour.
Trump's relationship with the UK — traditionally the US' closest transatlantic ally — has also come under strain.
On Sunday night, Trump posted on Truth Social that Starmer would resign as prime minister of the UK, accusing him of failing "badly" on immigration and energy.
Starmer has not yet made an announcement about his political future, but is expected to do so imminently.
Experts said it's hard to know whether a new leader would alleviate any pressure — or increase it.
"I actually think they will make the calculus that domestically, it will be better for them to differentiate from Keir Starmer by standing up more to Trump and looking like they are really putting the UK's military and economic national interests front and centre," Genauer said.
She said the fallout between Trump and Meloni has reinforced a conclusion many European leaders already appeared to be reaching: that closeness to the US president can bear a political cost, and may offer diminishing returns.
— With additional reporting by the Reuters news agency.
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