The victory of Péter Magyar and his Tisza party is a stunning result. Out of nowhere, they assembled a coalition of voters from the far left to the hard right, uniting to rid Hungary of Orbánism.
In recent years, Viktor Orbán had become an irritant to Europe, a hero to the MAGA populist right in the United States and a useful ally for the Kremlin.
Europe celebrates
Magyar had not even given his victory speech to the thousands of supporters who’d gathered on the banks of the Danube when the calls started coming in. Emmanuel Macron of France, Friedrich Merz of Germany and a particularly excited Donald Tusk of Poland, who joked “I am so happy, probably more happy than you!”.
Most European leaders, even those on the political right, had grown tired of Orbán’s obstructionism and were concerned Hungary had become an autocracy. Around €17 billion ($28.1 billion) of EU funds allocated to Budapest have been frozen, over concerns about the independence of the judiciary and corruption.
The prime minister elect says he’s going to go to Brussels and get that money unlocked. His European counterparts may want to see proof that Hungary’s system of checks and balances has been properly restored before that happens.
New hope for Ukraine
Orbán had made Volodymyr Zelenskyy enemy no.1 during the campaign. Posters featuring the Ukrainian leader’s face next to that of Magyar were everywhere, carrying a warning that should the opposition win, the war would come to Hungary.
The incoming prime minister agrees with his predecessor that arms should not be sent to Kyiv, but is expected to be far less confrontational in dealings with Kyiv.
It’s expected Magyar will lift the Hungarian veto on a €90 billion ($149.2 billion) loan for Ukraine that the EU had hoped to approve months ago.
Zelenskyy wrote: “We are ready for meetings and joint constructive work for the benefit of both nations, as well as for the sake of Europe’s peace, security, and stability.”
MAGA-Fail
One of the strangest moments of the election came when JD Vance, the US vice president dispatched to Budapest by his boss to show support for Orbán, tried to call Donald Trump on speakerphone at a rally, but the call was put through to voicemail.
It summed up the bizarre, bungled and ultimately unhelpful American intervention in the campaign. Orbán had hoped his close relationship with the White House would convince voters he had the respect of the most powerful leader on the planet. Most voters didn’t care or saw it as more evidence their prime minister was siding with Washington over the rest of Europe.
The MAGA movement didn’t understand this election. This was not a battle of the left versus the right, pro-Trump versus anti-Trump.
When Hungarians cast their ballot, it’s doubtful any were thinking about Trump. Domestic issues were key. The economy, living standards and the rule of law.
The silence from the White House after the result became clear is telling. Trump doesn’t like a loser. Now, his closest ally in Europe is one.
Russian dismay
“I am at your service.”
That’s what Orbán reportedly told Vladimir Putin during a phone call in October last year, the transcript of which leaked in the final week of campaigning.
Then, another bombshell.
Allegations the Hungarian foreign minister had called the Kremlin during breaks at EU summits to provide information about confidential discussions regarding Ukraine.
Orbán said his relationship with Moscow allowed Hungary access to cheap Russian energy. That is true.
But former Hungarian foreign minister Géza Jeszensszky told me it came at the cost of his country’s sovereignty.
“I am not hesitant to say Hungary has become the satellite of Russia. This is voluntary, without any reason. To do so, that’s a crime that’s incomprehensible to explain.”
When the Kremlin eventually commented on Magyar’s win, the comments were brief.
“Hungarians have made their choice and we respect it,” said a spokesperson, who added “the election has nothing to do with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict".
But Putin will know he’s lost a valuable and rare ally within the EU.
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