Don't speculate, listen to the US Fed: RBA

A Reserve Bank official says it's best to listen to what the US Federal Reserve has to say about rate hikes, rather than speculating.

A pedestrian walks past the Reserve Bank of Australia

Australia's low debt, by world standards, is helping foreigners buy commonwealth government bonds. (AAP)

An Australian central banker has dismissed speculation that weak inflation will tie the US Federal Reserve's hands when it comes to hiking interest rates.

The Fed is widely expected to begin raising rates from near zero around the middle of the year.

But with the recent sharp fall in oil prices wreaking havoc on inflation and pulling US consumer prices down into deflationary territory, speculation has been mounting that the Fed may delay lifting rates.

Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle says while US inflation was low, the effect of lower oil prices was probably temporary.

He dismissed speculation that weak inflation would delay Fed tightening, saying the Fed had not changed its language on the matter for the past six months.

"Whether people listen to that is up to them," Dr Debelle told an economics conference on Monday.

"All I would say is that I'd probably listen to the people that actually have control over what they're actually going to do, and hear what they're saying, based on expectations around that."

Nomura head of macro products Jon Linton said the market was currently pricing in a hike around September or October, with slow rises from there.

He said the market's assumption was more cautious than it had been in the past.

"The market is right to price in a little bit less certainty because, at every stage over the past five years, the market has over-estimated how much is priced in," Mr Linton said.

Matthew Peter, chief economist at government-owned investment firm QIC, has previously said that any Fed delay that disappointed market expectations of a mid-year hike would give the RBA a lot more work to do.

It could push the Australian dollar back above 80 US cents, giving the RBA impetus to drop the cash rate as low as 1.25 per cent in 2015, he said.

The Fed's next policy decision is due on Thursday morning, Australian time.

Meanwhile, Dr Debelle has highlighted the popularity of Australia's commonwealth government bonds among offshore investors.

He said Australia's low debt levels, by world standards, and AAA credit rating were encouraging foreigners to buy the majority of commonwealth government bonds.


Share

2 min read

Published

Updated

Source: AAP


Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News daily and direct to your Inbox

Sign up now for the latest news from Australia and around the world direct to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Download our apps
SBS News
SBS Audio
SBS On Demand

Listen to our podcasts
An overview of the day's top stories from SBS News
Interviews and feature reports from SBS News
Your daily ten minute finance and business news wrap with SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves.
A daily five minute news wrap for English learners and people with disability
Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS
SBS World News

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service
Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world