Guy Bruten is not optimistic about Australia's economic outlook, with falling commodity prices and the potential for a slide in house prices painting a gloomy backdrop.
The Asia-Pacific senior economist for global funds manager AllianceBernstein says he's "downbeat about Australia's prospects for the next few years".
That's despite the upbeat readings from latest official monthly employment reports.
In a report issued on Monday, Mr Bruten said there is a lot of "noise" - potentially misleading short-term ups and downs - in the data.
"When we dig down into the detail, its hard to discern a shift in trend," he said.
And the recent drops in commodity prices, beginning a downward trend that began in mid-2011, mean the economic momentum behind employment growth is at risk.
The drag on the economy from lower commodity prices is a "multi-year affair," Mr Bruten said.
"The end is not yet in sight."
Any new LNG projects are likely to be non-viable with oil prices at current lows, so spending on exploration and support services are also at risk.
"In turn, that has ramifications for employment - a further shakeout lies ahead," he said.
With employment growth under pressure, attention will turn to the housing market and the possibility of a "correction".
"Yes, people are still talking about the upswing phase, but we suspect that will change in the coming months," Mr Bruten.
He questioned how long the the strong rises in housing prices, in Sydney in particular, could continue amid the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's moves to restrain lending to investors, and signs of oversupply in some market pockets.
"There's a clear risk that falling house prices may be the next phase in the post-commodity-boom adjustment story."
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