Economists shocked by budget deficit

Economists have expressed surprise at the federal government's larger budget deficit forecasts.

$A on its way towards parity

(AAP)

Economists say an increase in the federal government's budget deficit is shocking and disappointing.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said he was surprised that the budget deficit is now expected to be $30.1 billion in 2013/14, rather than the $18 billion estimated in the May budget.

"It's a bit disappointing to see the deficit is so much worse," Dr Oliver said.

"I'm shocked by how much it's deteriorated.

"We seem to keep pushing out the return to surplus and the return to surplus gets steeper and steeper as time goes by."

The updated budget forecast came in the government's economic statement on Friday, which also forecast a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.25 per cent as the government grapples with a $33 billion revenue writedown.

But Market Economics managing director Steven Koukoulas said Treasury was being too gloomy.

"I think they're being a little bit too pessimistic on this one," he said.

"The economy is a bit weaker, inflation is very low, so they've just taken that assessment of things and they're just looking at the lower end of consensus rather than the middle.

"There's a number of indicators that have probably forced them to scale it back but it does seem just a bit too soft, in my view.

"In the scheme of the economy, it's only a couple of tenths of a per cent variation to the numbers back at budget time.

"I don't get hung up about the budget deficit when I know the trajectory is towards an improvement.

"And if the economy is underperforming, then letting the automatic stabilisers work a little bit is actually no bad thing."

Dr Oliver said it was possible the government was updating its economic forecasts on Friday to avoid embarrassment when Treasury releases the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) once an election is called.

"It's quite possible there was a bit of wishful thinking in the May budget," Dr Oliver said.

"The government realises now that the Treasury in their PEFO will have to release their best estimate as to how things really look.

"They don't want to be embarrassed so the government wants to come up with some numbers which are pretty close to what the Treasury will release."


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Source: AAP


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