in brief
- The BoM warns the recent rainfall could be short-lived, with much of the country set to experience a warm and dry winter.
- Climate models suggest a transition to El Niño is likely during winter.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has released a first look at weather conditions for the first few weeks of June, as El Niño looks increasingly likely to develop over winter.
In its latest update, the BoM is predicting unusually warm and drier conditions until September, following record rainfall in parts of Australia in May.
Eastern NSW has seen heavy rainfall this week after enduring its second-driest April on record, and parts of South Australia, including the Mallee and Riverland regions, have also seen exceptional rainfall following years of prolonged drought.
But the BoM warns the recent rainfall could be short-lived, with much of the country set to experience a warm and dry winter.
In a nutshell, the BoM is forecasting the following conditions for winter:
- Rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of southern and eastern Australia
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of the north
- Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia
Less rain than usual
Rainfall between June and August is expected to be below average across south-east Queensland, eastern NSW, most of Victoria, southern South Australia, eastern Tasmania and western parts of Western Australia.
The BoM said forecasts indicate a 60 to 80 per cent chance of drier-than-normal conditions in those regions.
Parts of western Tasmania are likely to experience above-average rainfall over the same period.
Elsewhere across the country, there is no strong indication of either wetter or drier conditions, with roughly equal chances of above- or below-average rainfall.
The dry outlook for much of Australia is being driven by increasing probabilities of below-average rainfall later in the season.
While parts of northern Australia are forecast to receive above-average rainfall, the period coincides with the region's dry season, when much of the tropical north typically records little rain.
As a result, even modest falls, often less than 20mm, may be enough to exceed seasonal averages.
Warmer days and nights
Maximum temperatures from June to August are expected to be above average across most of Australia, the BoM predicted, with a 60 to more than 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-normal conditions.
Much of southern Australia also faces an increased likelihood of unusually high daytime temperatures.
The strongest chances — exceeding 70 per cent — are forecast for Tasmania, Victoria, most of New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, south-eastern South Australia and western parts of Western Australia.
Minimum temperatures are also likely to remain above average across most of the country during winter, with forecasts indicating a 60 to more than 80 per cent chance of warmer overnight conditions.
The chance of unusually high overnight temperatures is particularly elevated for Tasmania, Victoria, large parts of eastern and southern NSW, the southern Queensland coast, southern South Australia and much of Western Australia.
El Niño likely
Sea surface temperatures (SST) between June and August are forecast to remain warmer than average around much of Australia, with waters in the Tasman Sea expected to be up to 2C above normal.
Warmer ocean temperatures can increase moisture and atmospheric energy, heightening the risk of heavier rainfall and more intense weather systems when conditions align.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, although early signs of an El Niño are emerging, according to the BoM.
Climate models suggest a transition to El Niño is likely during winter, driving warmer and drier conditions.
Typically, global temperatures increase during El Niño and fall during La Niña, the flip side of the pattern, which occurs when Pacific Ocean temperatures are cooler than usual.
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