IN BRIEF
- El Niño and La Niña are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a naturally occurring weather cycle.
- A super El Niño requires sea surface temperatures to rise at least two degrees Celsius above average.
As the weather changes, concerns are rising for a possible extreme El Niño.
However, weather experts aren't convinced that this year's El Niño event will be anything out of the ordinary.
What is an El Niño?
El Niño and La Niña are part of a naturally occurring weather cycle, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The ENSO typically operates over one to eight years and alternates between periods of warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) in the eastern and central tropical Pacific.
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The tropical Pacific is the warm, equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, which stretches along almost one-third of the Earth's surface, along the equator.
It's an area responsible for much global climate regulation and weather patterns.
Rising sea surface temperature in this region and weakened equatorial trade winds cause an El Niño.
For Australia, El Niño brings reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures, a shift in temperature extremes, increased frost risk, decreased alpine snow depths and increased fire danger in southeast regions.
Alternatively, La Niña occurs when trade winds become stronger.
Winds change ocean surface currents and pull cold water from the sea depths to the surface, lowering the sea surface temperature.
La Niña in Australia can mean increased rainfall, cooler daytime temperatures and warmer overnight temperatures, a shift in temperature extremes, decreased frost risk, increased tropical cyclone events and earlier monsoon onset.
What is a 'super El Niño'?
On 2 June, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) announced the formation of an El Niño.
Less than a week later, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that there's a 63 per cent chance the El Niño event would become "very strong".
Identifying an El Niño depends on sea surface temperatures.
While some scientists define an El Niño as a temperature anomaly of 0.5 degrees Celsius above average, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) defines an El Niño as 0.8 degrees Celsius above average.
For a super or extreme El Niño, sea surface temperature would be at least 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer than average.
The last super El Niño reported was in 2015.
A super El Niño can disrupt atmospheric circulation, leading to severe weather events such as thunderstorms and tropical cyclones in the eastern equatorial region.
For the western Pacific region, which includes Australia, super El Niños can cause devastating droughts and wildfires — including the Ash Wednesday bushfires of February 1983.
Super El Niños can cause an increased decline in marine life, and massive global economic loss.
Why won't there be a super El Niño this year?
The chances of a super El Niño in 2026 are slim, particularly because it follows a triple La Niña between late 2020 and mid-2022.
Since 1950, there have been five three-year La Niña events reported. The latest was from 2020-2022. Before that, La Niña events were recorded from 1998-2000, 1983-1985, 1973-1975, and 1954-1956.
None of these triple La Niña events was followed by a super El Niño; only a strong El Niño in 1957.
In April, the BoM predicted an El Niño would form between May and July, but didn't raise any concerns for a super event.
While this year's El Niño is unlikely to be extreme, research suggests super events may increase with climate change.
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